Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
Conclusion: The total monthly price decline exceeded 17%. Near-term contracts NGU25, NGV25 are trading 3-5% below the average price 10 days before expiration for all expired contracts over the previous 15 years. NGX25 has reached the median. Prices of 2026 and 2027 contracts are also declining and are already trading at or below the upper quantile boundary for almost all months.
Current forward curve vs. 2020-2024
Conclusion: The shape of the forward curve is flattening out and comes closer and closer to the states of the curve on the same calendar day of the year as the 2023, and 2024 curves. This is especially noticeable on contracts with delivery dates of three years or more. On closer contracts, the divergence is still considerable.
Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
Conclusion: For week 33 (Aug 11-17th) we expect a +14 BCF gain in storage. Fill rates are holding steady above the median for the previous 5 years. Pumping rates remain positive, reducing shortage risks and contributing to downward price pressure.
Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusion: In the overall continental cross-section, the current week 34 weather is holding steady with average values from observations over the past 30 years. Next week (35), HDD+CDD values are forecast to be well below average, contributing to lower demand for AC power to downward price pressure.
Explanation of the chart: candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots 2024, green 2025, blue prediction 2025
Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region
Conclusion: The forecasts by major regions are consistent with the overall picture. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal in week 34 in the Western regions of Eastern Europe, followed by a decrease in week 35. Across the PACIFIC region, values remain high. On the contrary, the Atlantic regions are below normal.
Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024
Conclusion: For the past 2 weeks, the supply/demand differential has held well above the upper 10-year range. Despite record production levels, total natural gas consumption has also increased due to growing power demand, as well as demands by the industrial sector and LNG exports.