California has The California Council on Science and Technology to call on any time we want good answers to science/engineering/environmental issues. We did that in 2011 – we asked what our energy future should look like – they answered….
Answer: ~1/3 nuclear power, ~1/3 wind/solar, ~1/3 geothermal/biofuel, etc. And, in 2011, we were on track to such a goal, having The Geysers geothermal, Oroville plus other hydro, Diablo Canyon and San Onofre nuclear – all yielding utility-grade power to meet ~30% of total CA demand. Our various wind/solar/biomass installations brought us to ~50%. The remainder of our usage was served by gas and out-of-state coal combustion (LA has long had its own coal plant in Delta Utah, which is planned to cut output in half and switch to gas – a baby step toward cleanliness).
CA’s energy pie (approaching CCST’s advice) with San Onofre would have been a good start, but we faltered, when long festering national politics brought about 2005’s repeal of the 1936 Public Utilities Holding Company Act. San Onofre was shut for no nuclear problem, rather for its holders Sempra Energy (gas) and Edison International (gas + electric) to access its ~$3B trust fund (a living PUHCA would have forced the holders to get SEC approval).
The CEO of Edison International also stated (personal communication) that held utility SoCal Edison would be charging its customers an extra $1.5B.
Thus, CA emissions went up and power reliability went down (Oroville Dam too). But, CAISO can always depend on Diablo Canyon…
9 Sep. 2015: “Planned Maintenance at Diablo Canyon Unit 2 Delayed to Meet State Energy Needs During Heat Wave” CAISO: “Requests Both Units Operate at Full Power”.
Unlike sun/wind/fuel-dependent generation, nuclear plants start with fissile energy in-reactor to last several years and never run to ‘empty’ (the US Navy runs nuclear ships for ~30 years per fissile ‘fillup’).
Fortunately, PG&E has maintained its relatively clean power mix, but “unspecified” (below) includes considerable coal power, as from Berkshire-Hathaway’s BHE-owned Pacificorp. Warren Buffet wants to keep that business going and is trying out an interesting ploy called WRAP (Western Resource Adequacy Plan) which would rush his coal power into any breach brought on by any CA wind/solar, etc. power evaporation. Buffet also expects CA to run a ~1000mi HV transmission line up to Pacificorp furnaces/generators. Interestingly, WRAP would be meaningless if San Onofre were repaired and restarted – reliability would rise and emissions would drop. Gotta watch those billionaires.
Because PG&E has extended Diablo Canyon’s nuclear operation (per NRC licensing), its generation suite remains ~50% clean (pie chart). Peninsula Clean Energy (a CCA) bought 420GWH from PG&E in 2017, perhaps not aware it was cleaner power simply because of its large nuclear/hydro proportion.
A most valuable analysis has been completed that shows just how profitable was PG&E’s decision to extend Diablo’s licensing under NRC approval…
DCPP Annual & Calculated Cost per MWh
(per PG&E 19 May 2023 Proceeding R2301007#)
Year $ Cost $/MWh
2021 581,344,000 35.22
2022 644,111,000 36.50
2023 735,836,000 41.48
Annual DCPP Net Ratepayer Benefit Equals Total Annual Market Value
Less Annual Cost. 2021 & 2022 data from Table 1, 2023 data from Table 2.
Year Ratepayer Benefit
2021 $231,632,610
2022 $841,062,472
2023 $240,222,592
Total: $1,312,917,675
A $billion or so helps offset those sneaky CA wind/solar curtailment fees...
California’s 2019-20 increasing monthly & annual wind/solar “curtailment”.
Cost (>1.5 trillion watthours) ensconced in our electric bills…
Owners of curtailed generation still get paid and CA pays out-of-state utilities wishing some ‘green cred’ to take the curtailment, all at CA utility customer expense – interesting how wordsmithing (“curtailment“) can cover up foibles or
worse. As we learned in NJ kindergarten: “Follow the money”, and in 1st grade: "The best money is government money".
We should be listening to CCST and engineers/scientists untethered from sales/marketing interests.
Dr. A. Cannara, 650-400-3071