Areas of Vermont are still underwater and Green Mountain Power is working to restore power to thousands of customers. Weather events continue to disrupt service for consumers nationwide. Last month, NOAA upgraded their forecasting model to better predict the unexpected. Extreme geomagnetic space weather storms create currents in electric power transmission lines at the surface, putting the grid at risk. If NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center could provide even more accurate and timely information, grid operators would have a better chance of staying on top of protecting the grid. The upgraded model delivers graphical maps of the U.S and Canada and gridded data files, updated every minute, that indicate both the strength and direction of the electric fields induced by the geomagnetic storm.
"Working closely with power grid operators, our federal partner, USGS, and the Canadian Hazards information service, we built a new level of resilience to the impacts of space weather on Earth,” said Clinton Wallace, Director of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. “This model upgrade comes at the right time to provide the electric power industry better data to act on as activity on the Sun increases the closer we get to solar maximum.”
However, our current ability to obtain 3-day forecasts are not providing utilities with enough notice to prepare for extremes. The costs related to loss of service, restoration and repairs are exorbitant. In 2023 alone, there have been 7 confirmed weather and climate disaster event with losses exceeding $1 billion, disrupting utility services. In total, power outages cost the U.S. economy more than $150 billion each year and it’s estimated the cost of damages and lost revenues could rise by approximately $1.7 billion by 2050.
Cara Hogan, VP of Enterprise Marketing at Tomorrow.io, pointed out, in a blog, that the traditional methods could be improved by including all the weather data available. Accurate weather intelligence will provide context for specific organizations, including the energy sector. According to Accenture, 92 percent of utility executives expect extreme weather events to increase. Almost three-quarters of utility executives said that extreme weather events represent a significant challenge to network operations and safety. And, the top-ranked weather concerns for network resilience include very high winds (23 percent), flooding (17 percent), and winter ice and snowstorms (15 percent).Â
Several companies are already gathering information regarding storm risk analysis to better predict specific impacts on businesses, facilities, energy, agriculture, construction, mining and oil and gas. What method is your utility using to better predict and prepare for unexpected events?