Global demand for hydrogen must be analyzed by distinguishing total demand (from all sources combined) and the specific share of low-carbon hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen, as well as its derivatives [*] [**].
In 2024, total global hydrogen demand is estimated at 97â100 million tonnes per year [1, 2]. Green hydrogen productionâproduced exclusively through water electrolysis using renewable energyâremains very low, at around 0.5 to 1 Mt, or less than 1% of total demand [2]. Green hydrogen is part of a broader category called low-carbon hydrogen, which also includes blue hydrogen (produced from natural gas with COâ capture and storage). In other words, all green hydrogen is low-carbon, but not all low-carbon hydrogen is necessarily green.
By 2030, two main trajectories are considered:
Current trend: this scenario reflects hydrogen projects that are already planned or under construction, without major acceleration in public policies or investments. In this pathway, total hydrogen demand would reach around 100â110 million tonnes [3], of which only 4 to 6 million tonnes would be low-carbon hydrogen (green and blue combined), according to the downward revision by the International Energy Agency in 2025 [4]. Most of this production could be green if electrolyzers are deployed as planned, but this would represent only 4â6% of total demand, remaining very marginal compared to existing industrial needs [5].
âNet zeroâ scenario: this scenario corresponds to a carbon neutrality pathway, compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, implying deep decarbonization of industry, transport, and energy production. In this case, global hydrogen demand would reach around 200 million tonnes by 2030, including 140 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen (of which 80 million tonnes would come from electrolysis, i.e., green hydrogen) [6]. More modest figures of 35â45 million tonnes correspond to the IEAâs 2025 downward revision, which takes into account accumulated delays and canceled projects [7].
In the longer term, by 2050, projections for a net-zero scenario indicate global hydrogen demand of 500â600 Mtâthe IEA projects around 530 Mt in its Net Zero scenario [8], while the Hydrogen Council estimates around 660 Mt [9]âmainly consisting of low-carbon and green hydrogen. This reflects the central role of this energy carrier in decarbonizing sectors that are difficult to electrify: heavy industry (steel, chemicals), maritime and aviation transport (e-SAF, green ammonia), and energy storage.
From the global surge in hydrogen demand, attention naturally shifts to how individual countries position themselves within this emerging market. For instance, Morocco's hydrogen demand is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.
By 2030, it is estimated at 4 TWh, or about 0.12 to 0.15 million tonnes of green hydrogen or its derivatives [***] such as ammonia and methanol, requiring 2 GW of renewable production capacity.
This demand is expected to reach 22 TWh (~0.7â0.8 million tonnes) in 2040 with 12 GW of capacity, then 40 TWh (~1.2â1.5 million tonnes) in 2050, requiring 20 GW.
Projected exports are estimated at 0.3â0.65 million tonnes in 2030, rising to between 3.4 and 9.5 million tonnes by 2050.
References:
[1] RealHyFC Project. (2025, February 5). Key insight from the IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2024. https://realhyfc-project.eu/key-insight-from-the-iea-global-hydrogen-review-2024/
[2] International Energy Agency. (2024). Global hydrogen review 2024. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/89c1e382-dc59-46ca-aa47-9f7d41531ab5/GlobalHydrogenReview2024.pdf
[3] Revolution ĂnergĂ©tique. (2025, October 1). La production dâhydrogĂšne vert devrait ĂȘtre plus faible que prĂ©vu en 2030. https://www.revolution-energetique.com/actus/la-production-dhydrogene-vert-devrait-etre-plus-faible-que-prevu-en-2030/
[4] Global Hydrogen Review / GH2. (2025, October 15). BNEF estimates 5 million tonnes of clean hydrogen by 2030 when IEA says we need 300 million tonnes. https://gh2.org/blog/bnef-estimates-5-million-tonnes-clean-hydrogen-2030-when-iea-says-we-need-300-million-tonnes
[5] Mercom India. (2025, March 12). Global lowâemissions hydrogen production to reach one million ton by 2025. https://www.mercomindia.com/global-low-emissions-hydrogen-production-to-reach-one-million-ton-by-2025
[6] Connaissance des Ănergies. (2024, November 4). HydrogĂšne : lâAIE appelle Ă accĂ©lĂ©rer en vue de la lointaine neutralitĂ© carbone. https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/hydrogene-laie-appelle-accelerer-en-vue-de-la-lointaine-neutralite-carbone-241104
[7] Reuters. (2025, September 12). IEA cuts 2030 lowâemissions hydrogen production outlook by nearly a quarter. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/iea-cuts-2030-low-emissions-hydrogen-production-outlook-by-nearly-quarter-2025-09-12/
[8] World Economic Forum. (2022, May 22). Action on clean hydrogen is needed to deliver netâzero by 2050. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/05/action-clean-hydrogen-net-zero-2050/
[9] Hydrogen Council. (2021). Hydrogen for netâzero. https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Hydrogen-for-Net-Zero.pdf
Notes:
[*] The main industrial derivatives of hydrogen include, first, ammonia (NHâ), produced by reacting hydrogen (Hâ) with nitrogen (Nâ) via the Haber-Bosch process. It is widely used in fertilizer production, but is also being considered as a potential fuel due to its relatively high energy densityâthat is, the amount of energy a fuel can store per unit of volume or mass. The higher this density, the more energy can be stored and transported in a limited space, which is essential for industrial applications and transport.
Next are alcohols, particularly methanol (CHâOH), produced from hydrogen combined with carbon dioxide (COâ) or carbon monoxide (CO). It is used as a liquid fuel but also as a âchemical building block,â meaning a fundamental raw material that serves as a starting point for manufacturing a wide range of industrial products, such as plastics (polymers), solvents (substances capable of dissolving other compounds), paints, adhesives, and other fuels.
Finally, synthetic fuels, or e-fuels, are made from hydrogen and captured COâ, making it possible to produce equivalents of fossil fuels while potentially reducing net carbon emissions. E-methane (synthetic gas) is an artificial version of natural gas that can be used in existing networks; e-kerosene is designed for aviation as a direct substitute for jet fuel; while e-diesel and e-gasoline replicate the properties of conventional diesel and gasoline, allowing them to power current engines without major modifications.
[**] Hydrogen plays an increasingly important role in many key industrial sectors.
In steelmaking, steel is produced from iron ore, which does not contain pure iron but iron combined with oxygen; therefore, this oxygen must be removed to obtain metallic iron. Traditionally, a reducing agent called coke (carbon-rich) is used, which, when burned at very high temperatures in blast furnaces, both melts the ore and removes its oxygen through a chemical reaction known as âreduction.â This reaction generates carbon dioxide (COâ), a major greenhouse gas. A cleaner alternative is to use hydrogen as a reducing agent in a process called direct reduced iron (DRI-Hâ): hydrogen reacts with the oxygen in the ore to form water vapor (HâO) instead of COâ, significantly reducing environmental impact.
In the cement industry, production relies on âclinkerization,â a stage where a mixture of limestone and clay is heated to very high temperatures (around 1400â1500°C) to produce clinker, the basic component of cement. This phase is extremely energy-intensive and typically depends on fossil fuels. Hydrogen can be used as a clean fuel to provide this intense heat, thereby contributing to decarbonizing production.
In oil refining, hydrogen is essential for producing clean, high-quality fuels. Crude oil contains many impurities, particularly sulfur, which, if not removed, causes pollution and acid rain when burned. To produce clean fuels (gasoline, diesel, etc.), sulfur must be removed. This is where hydrogen plays a role: it combines with sulfur to form a gas called HâS (hydrogen sulfide), which can then be captured and treated. This process, called hydrodesulfurization, results in cleaner-burning fuels with reduced air pollution and lower sulfur dioxide emissions. Hydrogen is also used in hydrocracking, where it helps break down large heavy hydrocarbon molecules into smaller, more useful ones such as gasoline, diesel, or kerosene, which are suitable for modern engines and environmental standards. Without hydrogen, these processes could not achieve the level of purity, performance, and safety required for todayâs fuels.
In agriculture, hydrogen is at the core of ammonia production, which is the basis of nitrogen fertilizers. These fertilizers provide the nitrogen needed for plant growth and are essential for maintaining high agricultural yields and feeding the global population.
In the building sector, hydrogen can be used through fuel cells to simultaneously produce electricity and heat (cogeneration), and even cooling (trigeneration). Electricity powers equipment, heat is used for heating and domestic hot water, while cooling can be generated for air conditioning, significantly improving overall building energy efficiency.
Finally, in transport, hydrogen is particularly relevant for heavy-duty and long-distance mobility (trucks, buses, non-electrified trains, ships, and even aviation), where batteries face limitations in weight and range. In contrast, for short-distance and light transport (urban passenger cars, short trips), battery-electric solutions are often simpler and more efficient, making hydrogen a complementary rather than competing solution.
[***] The correspondence between 4 TWh and 0.12 to 0.15 million tonnes of green hydrogen is based on the energy content of hydrogen, whose lower heating value (LHV) is about 33.3 kWh per kilogram, or 33.3 MWh per tonne. In other words, 1 tonne of hydrogen contains approximately 33.3 MWh of energy (https://www.encyclopedie-energie.org/lhydrogene/). The conversion can therefore be made as follows: 4 TWh is equivalent to 4,000,000 MWh, which theoretically corresponds to about 120,000 tonnes of hydrogen (4,000,000 Ă· 33.3), i.e., 0.12 million tonnes. The upper bound of 0.15 million tonnes is explained by operational and methodological factors, including energy losses associated with production processes (electrolysis), conversion, storage, and transport, as well as the use of derived equivalents such as ammonia or methanol, which involve different efficiencies. This range therefore reflects a realistic estimate that integrates both the theoretical energy value and the technical constraints of the system.