Environmentalists would like it to happen within the decade. In the State-of-the-Union address President Biden adlibbed and said we’ll need oil for at least another decade.
Making such a transition is a monumental change in behavior and if I’ve learned nothing else in my 60+ years on this planet it’s that structural and societal changes take generations. I’d put the elimination of oil in at 25-50 years, if not longer.
The world does need to come up with a realistic target. Because globally we need to apply the proper level of investments to facilitate a smooth transition, or we’ll end up wasting assets and resources.
Columbia University’s energy thinktank has been looking at what is being dubbed oil’s Goldilocks problem. They offer a “toolkit” for managing existing assets and investing in “transition assets” which help balance energy security and climate goals.
The reality of how long we’ll continue to need oil is one reason I advocate for a greater emphasis on carbon capture technologies. If we can’t stop emitting carbon we need to figure out how to extract it from the atmosphere.