Based on the Brazilian Independent System Operator (ONS) data:
In 2000, the installed capacity of the national integrated system was 75 GW for a maximum demand of 55 GW. The ratio was 1.4.
In 2025, these references are 241 GW and 100 GW, respectively. The ratio increased to 2.4.
The important thing about these numbers is: it was necessary to significantly increase installed capacity to meet maximum demand.
This is also true of the fact that, in the meantime, the ONS had to activate "curtailment" to balance the system, something previously very unusual.
So what?
The reason for this change is centred on the decision to subsidise non-firm energy sources such as solar and wind, which already represent a significant portion of our electricity matrix.
I insist, so what?
The cost of this "jump" from 1.4 to 2.4 (a 71% increase) is borne by consumers through tariffs ("wire fees"). It's that simple.
If Brazil decides to prioritize renewable, environmentally friendly energy sources, "made" entirely in Brazil, super tested and proved in Brazil, such as hydro power, we can become competitive again.
If...