Electricity prices in the free market rose by just over 30% in 2025.
The upward trend continues due to a list of factors:
(a) La Niña Effects
In the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants that represent the majority of electricity production.
(b) Mismatch between actual peak hours and tariffed peak hours
The change in the national consumption profile is not yet reflected in "wire fees", causing a real increase in costs.
(c) Lack of a "capillary" - demand response programs
This fact requires an increase in supply capacity to meet the few peak hours, resulting in very high costs, shared by all consumers.
(d) "Theft"
More than 10% of national electricity production is blatantly stolen. And this trend is likely to continue!
(e) "Non-firm" energies (solar and wind) more important in the matrix
This results in a need to increase the capacity of the "firm" grid to meet customer demand when non-firm energies are not delivering, and the associated cost is "shared" among all.
Summary: Brazil should remain (comfortably) at the tail end of the BRICS market in $/kWh.