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Energy Business
Bill James
Bill James
 · Posted in Energy Business

“Drill, Baby, Drill” Failed in Trump's First Term

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Life requires energy.

“Drill, Baby, Drill” is a “concept of a plan” for energy that failed when Mr. Trump was President. Drilling for oil decreased 54% from a Rig Count of 683 in Jan 2017 to 311 in Nov 2020.

Similar to Mr. Trump’s failed energy plan, Mr. Obama's plan for the environment failed. The economy was great under Trump because of massive drilling for oil under Obama increased supply.

The Law of Supply and Demand and health of the industry dictates the price of oil:

  • Oil fields are constantly depleting, decreasing supply.

  • Oil supply (orange) increases 3-10 years after Rig Count increases (green).

  • Rig Count (blue, right-side count) grew rapidly to over 1,700 in the 1st Obama Term and collapsed to 500 at the end of the 2nd Obama Term.

  • Rig Count Jan 2017: 683 when Trump took office.

  • Rig Count Nov 2018: 1,077 high point of Trump’s term.

  • Rig Count Nov 2020: 311 when Trump was elected out of office.

  • Low energy prices under Trump resulted from drilling while Obama was President.

  • Higher oil prices and inflation under Biden resulted from reduced oil drilling and oil industry bankruptcies in 2019 and 2020 while Trump was President.

There is lots of oil left in the US, but not at $80 a barrel. Cheap oil has been depleted. We have been warned of this:

  • 1957, Admiral Rickover: “For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050”,

  • 2010, President Obama: “For decades we have known that the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered….”

  • Despite the popular opinion, the US imports 6-7 million barrels of oil per day.

  • 10 of the last 10 US Presidents issued unanswered calls to action to end foreign oil addiction. Failure to act resulted in oil-dollar funded terrorism and oil-wars since 1991:

    • Nixon 1974: “At the end of this decade, in the year 1980, the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need. We will hold our future in our hands alone.”

    • Bush, 1992, “There is no security for the United States in further dependence on foreign oil.”

    • Biden, 2022, “Second, this crisis is a stark reminder: To protect our economy over the long term, we need to become energy independent. I’ve had numerous conversations over the last three months with our European friends of how they have to wean themselves off of Russia — Russian oil.  It’s just not — it’s just not tenable. It should motivate us to accelerate the transition to clean energy.”
       

As of Sept 13, 2024 the Rig Count is 485. We are coasting on DUC drilled under Obama and increased efficiencies. Like unaffordable oil between 2000-2008, the Dallas Federal Reserve survey of oil executives in Sept 2022 documents unaffordable oil will return this decade:

  • Question: Do you expect a significant tightening of the oil market by the end of 2024, given the current underinvestment in exploration?

  • Answer: 85% agree.

  • Cited comment: “Shale core exhaustion and inventory concerns are mainstream and well-documented issues. Shale will likely tip over in five years, and U.S. production will be down 20 to 30 percent quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold.”

Life requires energy. America desperately needs affordable sustainable energy as affordable oil depletes. Rough estimates of renewable investments under:

  • Trump: $200 billion

  • Biden/Harris: $1,420 billion

  • Relative to competition for world trade, stability of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency,and national security, in 2023 China installed more renewables than the US has in its entire history.

Prior to 1936, the US wind industry installed 6 million windmills. The US was well on the way to accomplishing what Thomas Edison understood was practical:

  • 1910: “Sunshine is spread out thin and so is electricity. Perhaps they are the same, Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy… Do we use them? Oh, no! We burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel. We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property…. There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen….”

  • 1931: “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait  ’til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

In 1936, the Federal government wiped out the renewables industry in favor of government enforced monopolies of fossil fuel burning central power plants.

Mr. Trump is hostile to renewables:

  • "Solar panels are a waste of money and don't work. Wind turbines are even worse."

  • "I hate wind. I hate it. All they do is kill birds and cost a fortune and ruin everybody's property values"

  • "'Green energy' is a big mistake - a very expensive mistake!"

  • "Windmills are the greatest threat in the US to both bald and golden eagles. Media claims fictional 'global warming' is worse."

  • "Fracking will lead to American energy independence. With price of natural gas continuing to drop, we don't need windmills or solar."

  • "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

  • Sept 10, 2024 Presidential Debate:

    • If Harris wins, "Fossil fuel will be dead. We'll go back to windmills, and we'll go back to solar."

    • "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants"

      • The German Foreign Office responded: "Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables. And we are shutting down – not building – coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest"

Mr. Trump’s policies want to return to 1936 Federal government control over energy.

Americans need energy and energy jobs. Mr. Trump’s stated policy objectives would:

  • Wipe out the jobs of the 535,000 Americans working in the renewable energy industry. Texas added 50,200 renewable energy jobs in 2022.

  • Wipe out the electricity provided by renewables by state:

  • Vermont, nearly 100%.

  • South Dakota: 85.3%

  • Washington: 79.1%

  • Idaho: 76.3%

  • Oregon: 71.1%

  • Iowa: 64.9%

  • Maine: 62.9%

  • Montana: 51.6%○        

  • Oklahoma: 44.4%

  • California: 43%

  • North Carolina: 14%

  • Georgia: 13%

My perspective why renewables will radically expand in all states based on regulatory changes in Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, and Iraq that allow deployment of solar-powered transport networks. These networks:

In Oct 2023 Bill Gates invested $56 million in Glydways PRT noting, "When it happens, AVs will change transportation as dramatically as the PC [personal computer] changed office work."

SwyftCities is opening the market in New Zealand and Texas.

Praetor Capital 2021 estimate of PRT capital value of $31-58 billion.