Covering Germany's Green Hydrogen Demand
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Green hydrogen will play an important role in the energy transition. In Europe, Germany is expected
to become the biggest importer of green hydrogen and its derivatives, accounting for more than half
of the combined hydrogen import demand across European countries. Transport of hydrogen and its
derivatives will be a crucial step for meeting local demand.
Hydrogen demand. Germany’s demand for hydrogen1 is expected to grow immensely in the coming
years. To reach the 2030 decarbonisation target and achieve climate neutrality by 2045, the National
Hydrogen Strategy foresees hydrogen demand to be between 90 terawatt-hours (TWh) and 110 TWh
per year in 2030 and reach 110 TWh-380 TWh by 2050. Other studies forecasting Germany’s future
green hydrogen needs suggest demand could be two to three times as high.
Import demand. Given the high expected demand levels and limited potential for green hydrogen
production in Germany, most of the green hydrogen demand will have to be met by imports. Countries
in Europe and outside Europe will be needed as partners for covering demand. Spain, the UK, and
Scandinavia have the highest production potential for green hydrogen in Europe, while the largest
potential for exports is expected in Spain, and in Scandinavia. Outside of Europe, studies identify
the highest hydrogen export potential in Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Morocco, Oman,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, among others. Green hydrogen production in Germany
and in Europe will likely be focused on hydrogen. Derivatives such as ammonia and methanol are
expected to be almost exclusively imported, mainly from countries not connected via pipelines
removed.
Hydrogen transport. Several options exist to transport hydrogen and its derivatives to Germany. The
availability and economics of hydrogen transport routes have important implications on the form and
origin of hydrogen imports.
• Pipelines, especially those with large diameters, offer the most economical way of transporting
large volumes of hydrogen. Repurposing existing natural gas pipelines can reduce infrastructure
investment cost to as low as one-third of new pipelines. Pipeline transport is particularly well-
suited for inner-European transport and transport from neighbouring regions with pre-existing
infrastructure, e.g. North Africa.
• For import routes across long distances (3,500 km or more), maritime shipping is the preferred
option. Particularly for routes where hydrogen pipelines are not possible and for hydrogen
derivatives, shipping can be the only transport option. However, given that converting hydrogen
into derivatives (and reconversion) is the single biggest driver of transport cost, hydrogen and
its derivatives should be transported in the form required by the end use to minimise conversion
losses.
• While at low volumes and across short distances, importing renewable electricity to produce
hydrogen in Germany can be cheaper than pipelines, over distances of 500 kilometres and
above, pipelines are better suited for hydrogen imports from an economic point of view. However,
electricity imports for use in the power sector will still play an important role for ensuring
Germany’s energy security.
Sustainability of transport. Decarbonised pipeline operation and ship fuelling will be key for
assuring the green quality of hydrogen, from a full-lifecycle emissions perspective. This requires
pipeline compressors to be operated using electricity with high renewable energy shares in all transit
countries. For shipping, decarbonized fuels such as green hydrogen, ammonia or methanol can
greatly reduce the emission intensity of the final product delivered compared to conventional shipping
fuels.
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