Climate Brink: "Exploring the drivers of modern global warming." How can a guy with a name like Zeke Hausfather not be a geek, an actual climate scientist? One of the best substacks around IMHO. Forcings or influences altering the climate include CO2, the primary driver of warming, but also 'non-CO2 greenhouse gases like CH4, N2O, and halocarbons.' Other human-caused drivers include tropospheric ozone + albedo changes due to land use changes. Natural forcings comprise primarily volcanic eruptions plus short-term + long-term variations in solar flux. Zeke used the 'latest version of FaIR, a reduced complexity climate model that has been used extensively by the community for assessing global-level changes to disentangle the respective, quantitative contributions of all these factors.' The attributions graphic 'shows the output of 841 different emission-driven FaIR model runs across the range of constrained parameter values. It simulates both the global surface temperature response to all forcings (in yellow), as well as estimates of each forcing in isolation (calculated by comparing the difference between runs containing all forcings and those excluding one type of forcing).' The black line in the figure shows the changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature [GMST]. Zeke notes there is 'significant year-to-year natural variability driven primarily by El Nino and La Nina events.' The other graphic is a well-named waterfall diagram, with all the ascending boxes representing positive forcings. Then the descending blue box is the net negative forcings of aerosols such as clouds + smoke. The black box on the right is not a forcing, but rather the change in surface temperature since 1850, namely 1.3ºC.  I should note that the small green box represents natural forcings such as the aforementioned volcanic eruptions + variations in solar activity. Climate deniers want us to believe all the changes we are seeing result from this small box, which is neither quantitative nor honest.
