Brazil: The Interest Rate Trap

The way Brazil has dealt with its unsustainable economic and financial position regarding public accounts (debt specifically) is by raising interest rates to extremely high levels (the second highest in the world).

Initially, this has a positive result, as massive international resources are sent to Brazil to take advantage of financial returns well above those of other countries.

Similarly, the dollar exchange rate falls. Inflation falls because a large part of the economy is tied to imports, which become cheaper in the local currency. In an election year, nothing is better for those in power!

On the other hand, it becomes increasingly difficult for Brazil to make manufactured goods viable simply because importing is potentially cheaper and exporting more expensive.

But how long can Brazil maintain this situation? Brazil will be facing a major crisis simply because of the lack of backing for this artificial scenario.

And.... in the energy arena, with high interest rates, the CAPXEX for each project needs a higher amortization cost to "make it happen".

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