Are We at GO for the Green Grid?
Rudy Shankar, Director, Energy Systems Engineering, Lehigh University
The past year had been tumultuous. It was simultaneously exciting, disastrous, promising, and terrifying. A war in Europe ushered in 2022 and we were about to witness unprecedented bloodshed, worldwide impacts of food shortages, inflation, and market meltdowns. The US market lost more than 30% of its value, but a series of interest rate increases may tame the inflation rate in 2023 and ease some of the uncertainty. China, the second largest economy, gambled on an unrealistic zero-COVID policy that caused severe economic pain, until it too realized that they needed to dial back political heavy handedness and focus on productivity. The Russian-Ukraine war continued unabated; the world had been shocked and despaired to learn an operating nuclear plant was repeatedly attacked with missiles. The Christmas 2022 freeze was a symbolic cap to the year which created curtailments and rolling blackouts in the Northeast and Southeast affecting nearly 150 million people.
But there were some encouraging developments in the pursuit of cleaner energy on the grid, fueled by legislation under the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill. The COP27 meeting agreed on global plans to accelerate green energy on the grid, and aid to nations affected by climate change. For the first time ever, nuclear fusion was demonstrated to produce more energy than inputted, but it was clear that commercialization was still decades away.
The new year will lead to visible, more greening of the grid. We will increase dependency of nuclear power as a reliable resource for base load. Smaller, modular counterparts will make advancements as a flexible option. Energy storage—especially utility-scale several gigawatt-hours (GWh) – will be demonstrated as a resource for intermittent renewable resources. Electric vehicles (EVs) will appear as significant options offered by major car manufacturers.
Tech Giants—Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc.-- have made eliminating their carbon emissions a prominent corporate goal — and have set not-too-distant deadlines to get there. The corporate quest to rapidly secure vast new amounts of renewable energy faces big challenges, however — not least in the Southeast, one of the country’s fastest-growing regions. We may see one of them emerge as a serious competitor to operate a utility.
Finally, there will be more emphasis on demand response as a principal strategy to manage imbalances of supply-demand, especially during severe weather events. Â
Nuclear Power & Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Nuclear power has provided 20% of the nation’s electricity for over 60 years. Of the 100+ reactors that were built over the years, about 85 are licensed to continue for another 10 to 15 years. It is possible to extend the license for a select few for even a longer period. SMRs have arisen to address cost uncertainties related to nuclear energy by assembling the entire plant at a manufacturing facility and installing them at the site.  Their maintenance requirements are more amenable to automation, thus reducing costs. Their modular nature provides flexibility to situate them at decommissioned coal plants and access the existing grid infrastructure. In addition, some of the SMRs are offered as “six-pack” options where one or more of the packs could be utilized for hydrogen generation, another important carbon-free fuel to assist in powering industrial processes and combustion turbines.
Prediction: Out of the fleet of existing nuclear plants that have already been relicensed to operate for a total of 60 years, it is expected that at least one plant would consider relicensing for another 20 year extension, until 2040. At least one utility is expected to apply for a license to build an SMR.
Energy Storage
Energy storage technologies have advanced sufficiently to smooth energy intermittency of renewable resources, defer energy use and even provide some of the grid functions traditionally provided by spinning reserves. Energy storage for long durations—several million watts for several hours—have been rapidly advancing, innovative thermo-electric energy storage system represents a flexible, low-cost, and expandable utility-scale solution for storing energy over long durations at high efficiency. Having these storage assets at population centers that may be threatened by extreme weather events may minimize its impact.
Prediction: Of the half-dozen or so companies developing long duration energy storage, one or more will be demonstrated this new year for a reliable and resilient grid
Electric Vehicles
With EVs now a double digit percentage of cars manufactured, we are expected to see significant price decreases. Coupled with Federal and State incentives, some of the EVs are likely to be cheaper than their IC counterparts. Utilities are expected to offer charging upgrades to residents recognizing the revenue potential.
Prediction: Many of the EV manufacturers will follow Tesla in offering deeper discounts. EV percentage of new cars will continue to increase.
Tech Giants Utility Play
With their increasing economic clout, Tech Giants have been eager to reach net-zero goals more aggressively. Google Energy a decade ago acquired an energy company and sought and received permission to buy and sell electricity like a utility. With their presence in the cloud, the Giants are eager for the data center’s supply to be 100% green.
Prediction: We will witness a teaming arrangement of one or more of the Tech Giants with an established U.S. utility to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals
Demand Response
The supply-demand mindset today requires that we meet any demand all the time. To shape demand for available supply could be addressed by dynamic electricity pricing which has been demonstrated but never put seriously into practice. Some of the reasons may be related to difficulties in customer understanding. Pricing signals could be triggered a few days before the event so that long-duration energy storage facilities could be charged. Utilities have not sufficiently utilized this tool, especially at critical times. Widespread internet accessibility today makes it a powerful dynamic tool to shape demand.
Prediction: More utilities will prioritize demand response as a major strategy to correct supply-demand imbalances