A widening divergence in storage and demand dynamics across the continents currently drives the natural gas market. While the U.S. gas inventories are currently tracking higher than this time last year, the European situation signals fragility. As of October 7, average storage across the continent stood at just under 83%, a significantly low figure compared to the comfortable levels seen in 2024 (94.6%) and 2023 (96.7%). This sharp deficit is a direct result of unusually cold weather in Central and Eastern Europe during early October, where temperatures in key regions like Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic fell 3°C to 4°C below the climatic norm, accelerating gas withdrawal for off-seasonal heating. Consequently, exposed areas like Ukraine (well below 40%) and Sweden (around 60%) face higher supply risk. Despite a modest decline in U.S. natural gas production, the continued strength of high LNG exports maintains a crucial link to global prices, preventing domestic inventory comfort from fully stabilizing the volatile market.
Storage Levels, USA: Near Upper End of 5-Year Range
As of October 3, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,641 Bcf, according to the EIA. This represents a net weekly injection of 80 Bcf compared with 3,561 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 23 Bcf higher than last year at this time and stand 157 Bcf above the five-year average, underscoring a storage position comfortably above seasonal benchmarks as the refill period approaches its close. The continued pace of injections highlights strong supply availability and mild early-autumn demand across most regions.
Picture 1 – Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the Midwest (+29 Bcf) and East (+28 Bcf) reported the largest weekly gains, while the Mountain (+6 Bcf) and Pacific (+2 Bcf) regions added modest volumes. The South Central region increased by 15 Bcf, with salt facilities up 3 Bcf and nonsalt stocks rising 12 Bcf, marking a reversal from the small draw observed a week earlier. Overall, these regional movements net to the 80 Bcf injection across the Lower 48. As shown in the accompanying chart, total inventories remain near the upper end of the five-year range, reflecting a robust storage cushion heading into mid-October.
USA Weather Conditions: Contrasting Patterns Persist
Over the past week, the United States experienced a pronounced temperature divide as early-autumn air masses advanced from the north while late-season warmth persisted in the southern tier. The South and Southeast, including Texas, Louisiana, and Florida, remained notably warm, with highs reaching the upper 80s°F to near 90°F (31–33°C) and maintaining elevated humidity levels well above normal for early October. Across the Mid-Atlantic and lower Midwest, conditions also trended warmer than seasonal averages under intermittent high-pressure ridging, extending summer-like temperatures deeper into the month.
In contrast, the Northern and interior Western states saw a marked cooldown, with daytime highs in the 40s–50s°F (4–12°C) and overnight lows near freezing across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The West Coast remained near normal with stable and dry weather, while the Central Plains and Great Lakes experienced periodic frontal passages producing scattered showers and variable temperatures. Overall, this synoptic setup underscored the ongoing seasonal handoff, with cooling demand subsiding across the southern states and early heating requirements gradually emerging in the northern tier.
Picture 2 - United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of October 16–22, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience a broadly warmer-than-normal pattern across much of the central and southern portions of the country. The Southern Plains, Texas, Gulf Coast, and lower Mississippi Valley are expected to record the strongest positive anomalies, sustaining highs well above seasonal averages. Warmer-than-normal conditions are also projected to extend into parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, maintaining a mild mid-autumn profile across much of the eastern half of the nation. This configuration reinforces the persistence of high-pressure dominance and continued late-season warmth over key population centers in the South and East.
In contrast, the Western United States — particularly California, Oregon, and Washington — is forecast to trend below to near normal, as cooler Pacific air moderates daytime temperatures and increases precipitation chances along the coast. Alaska remains firmly in the above-normal category, while Hawaii also leans warm, consistent with the broader hemispheric pattern. Overall, the outlook favors a stable regime with limited cold intrusions, suggesting that heating demand will rise only gradually in northern markets, while residual cooling needs persist in the southern tier, keeping overall natural gas demand in a seasonally balanced range.
Picture 3 - Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of October 7–13, 2025, total combined cooling and heating degree days (CDD + HDD) across the major U.S. demand centers continued to reflect the ongoing seasonal transition. The population-weighted national index remained broadly stable compared with the prior week, following a brief spike at the start of October. Florida and the Gulf Coast states again led weather-driven demand, with lingering humidity and daytime highs near the upper 80s°F maintaining light cooling loads. Texas and Louisiana followed, still posting elevated totals but below late-summer peaks, while California and New York trended much lower as coastal moderation and early heating offset residual cooling activity.
The weighted national average for the period hovered around 47 degree days, little changed week over week and broadly consistent with the normal early-October baseline. Cooling needs have now largely subsided in most southern markets, while heating influence is emerging slowly in the North and Midwest. This balanced shoulder-season pattern has produced a mixed demand signal — lower air-conditioning consumption tempered by modest increases in residential and commercial heating. Overall, national weather-related gas use remains in a transitional equilibrium, neither strongly cooling- nor heating-dominated.
Picture 4 - Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
During the same period, population-weighted CDD + HDD values generally held within the climatological normal band, showing no significant deviation from the five-year range. Actual daily values fluctuated between ~7 and 9 degree days, aligning closely with the seasonal mean near 8. The absence of persistent extremes underscores how steady temperatures have limited weather-driven volatility in power and heating demand. Regional dispersion remains evident — southern markets still modestly above average, northern and western markets near or slightly below normal — but the composite signal stays neutral overall.
By the close of the week, actual weighted CDD + HDD briefly rebounded from early-month lows, remaining well within the ± 2σ range shown on the normal comparison chart. The data suggest a stable, mild weather regime typical of mid-October, with only short-term fluctuations in total degree-day intensity. Looking ahead, the weighted curve points to continued oscillation around the lower-to-mid portion of the normal envelope, consistent with the seasonal handoff between cooling and heating. For the natural-gas market, this translates into steady but subdued weather-driven demand, allowing storage injections to remain strong until sustained heating loads develop later in the month.
Picture 5 - Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Northern and Eastern Europe’s Cold Entrenched
Across Europe, average temperatures for early October 2025 reveal a well-defined north–south gradient typical of the advancing autumn season. Northern and Eastern Europe — including Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Belarus, and parts of Ukraine — have cooled noticeably, with daytime averages generally in the single digits Celsius, indicating the firm establishment of autumnal air masses. These conditions suggest the first sustained cooling phase of the season across the northern tier, consistent with shorter days and increasing Arctic influence.
In contrast, Western and Southern Europe remain significantly milder. The Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and much of the Balkans are still experiencing comfortable mid-autumn warmth, with daily means ranging roughly from the mid-teens to low 20s °C. This lingering warmth reflects residual maritime and Mediterranean influence, keeping much of the southwest and coastal areas stable and dry. Central Europe — including Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic — lies in an intermediate zone, with averages around 10–12 °C, cooler than southern regions but well above northern levels.
Overall, the current distribution underscores a persistent north–south temperature divide across the continent. Heating demand is increasing steadily across Northern and Eastern Europe as cooler conditions become entrenched, while milder weather in Western and Southern Europe continues to limit early-season heating requirements.
Picture 6 - Europe Average Temperature (C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Another Week of Modest Decline
U.S. natural gas production declined modestly over the latest reporting week, averaging about 106.8 Bcf/d, down roughly 1.5% (1.6 Bcf/d) from the prior week’s levels near 108.4 Bcf/d. The decrease follows several weeks of stable output and likely reflects temporary maintenance and mild demand conditions rather than a sustained slowdown in supply. LNG exports remained firm, with 30 cargoes (about 112 Bcf) departing U.S. terminals during the week ending October 8, underscoring continued international demand as Europe prepares for the heating season.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, September 30, the natural gas rig count rose by just one to 118 rigs. Regional shifts included one addition in Eagle Ford and another among unidentified producing regions, partially offset by a decline of one rig in the Marcellus. Oil-directed rigs fell by two to 422, as small declines in the Permian and Eagle Ford outweighed a modest gain in Cana Woodford. The total rig count now stands at 549, which is 36 lower than a year ago, underscoring restrained upstream activity despite stable gas output.
Between October 2 and October 8, 30 LNG vessels with a combined carrying capacity of 112 Bcf departed U.S. export terminals, according to shipping data from Bloomberg Finance, L.P. Departures included eight from Sabine Pass, seven from Plaquemines, five from Corpus Christi, four from Freeport, and three each from Cameron and Calcasieu Pass. The consistent pace of exports underscores robust global demand for U.S. LNG, particularly from European buyers preparing for winter and maintaining elevated inventory levels amid seasonal weather uncertainty.
European Gas Storage: Materially Below 2023 and 2024 Levels
As of early October 2025, according to AGSI+ data, European natural gas storage levels average around 82.8% full. This places inventories below the record highs of 2023 (96.9%) and 2024 (94.7%), yet comfortably above the weaker refill years such as 2021 (76.2%) and 2022 (90.9%). Compared with the five-year average, storage remains moderately strong, though slightly behind the exceptional surpluses of the previous two autumns. The 2025 refill season progressed steadily but began leveling off sooner than in 2023 and 2024, suggesting that injection momentum has eased as temperatures declined and demand for space heating began to emerge. Overall, Europe enters the winter season with a still-solid but not record-high buffer, sufficient to meet early-season heating needs without immediate supply pressure.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the regional level, the latest storage map highlights a distinct West–East divide across the continent. Western and Southern Europe — particularly France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium — maintain inventories above 90%, providing strong seasonal readiness. Central European hubs such as Germany, Austria, and Poland report storage levels in the 80–90% range, ensuring a broadly comfortable position for the EU core. In contrast, Northern and Eastern Europe show weaker balances: Sweden holds around 60%, Denmark and Belarus hover near 40–50%, and Ukraine remains well below 40%, leaving these regions more exposed to potential early-season cold or supply disruptions. The overall pattern indicates that while most of Europe maintains a robust reserve cushion, localized shortfalls could heighten dependence on cross-border flows and coordinated EU balancing as winter demand builds.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Natural gas prices in both the U.S. and Europe eased modestly during the past week, reflecting mild autumn weather and comfortable storage levels on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., Henry Hub front-month futures settled around $3.22/MMBtu, down about 1.5% week-over-week, as weaker temperature-driven demand and near-record inventories limited upside momentum. Storage injections continue at a healthy pace, keeping domestic fundamentals balanced ahead of the winter season.
In Europe, Dutch TTF front-month prices closed near €32.4/MWh (≈ $10.1/MMBtu), about 1% lower on the week but broadly stable within the recent €31–34 range. High inventory levels — averaging over 82% EU-wide — along with steady LNG inflows have maintained a well-supplied market entering mid-October.
Looking ahead, Henry Hub prices are expected to remain range-bound in the $3.1–3.5/MMBtu corridor, with mild weather and high storage limiting upward potential. Robust LNG exports and gradual heating demand in the northern tier should prevent sharp declines. In Europe, TTF prices are likely to hold within €31–33/MWh ($9.6–10.3/MMBtu), as comfortable inventories and balanced flows keep volatility low unless early cold fronts emerge later in the month.