The price of gas continues to be shaped by a dynamic interplay of global factors. Currently, two primary forces are driving natural gas performance: weather conditions across the U.S. and Europe, and slowly altering supply fundamentals. Between August 6 and August 12, the weighted Cooling Degree Day (CDD) index remained elevated, signaling strong and persistent cooling demand in major U.S. states — a trend that amplifies short-term consumption. Simultaneously, the market faces an uptick in gas storage levels alongside higher-than-average LNG exports, both of which add complexity to pricing forecasts and gas market sentiment on the eve of the Alaska Summit on August 15.
USA Storage Levels: Above 5-year Average
According to EIA estimates, as of August 8, 2025, working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states stood at 3,186 billion cubic feet (Bcf). That represented a net weekly injection of 56 Bcf, bringing inventories 79 Bcf below last year’s level but 196 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,990 Bcf.
Regionally, the South Central led with over 1,154 Bcf in storage, followed by the East at 677 Bcf and the Midwest at 796 Bcf. All major regions saw modest increases in stocks over the week, except for slight drawdowns in the Salt facilities. Overall, storage remains within the five-year historical range, with current levels providing a comfortable buffer heading into the late summer cooling season and the upcoming winter heating period.
Weather Conditions Across the U.S.: Temperature Anomalies Came into Play
Over the past week, the U.S. experienced varied weather patterns with notable temperature anomalies. Warm conditions prevailed in central, northern, and western regions, including the Great Plains and Midwest, driven by an upper-level high-pressure system. Temperatures in these areas were above normal, contributing to dry conditions around the Great Lakes.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
In contrast, the Eastern and Southeastern states — such as Virginia, the Carolinas, Maryland, and Pennsylvania — saw unusually cool temperatures, 5–7°С below the August average, as Tropical Storm Erin drew colder air into the region.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/08/14/erin-storm-hurricane-forecast-track-impacts/
Looking ahead, warm anomalous air is expected to expand across the central and northern states, while the East and Southeast are likely to remain cooler, with chances of rain and cloud cover due to low-pressure systems and passing fronts. The West, particularly California’s Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, will continue to see moderately warm and mostly dry weather. Extreme heat remains over Texas and the Northern Rockies, while the Canadian Prairies stay wet.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The report wouldn’t be complete without mentioning Cooling Degree Days (CDD), which is a weather-based indicator used to estimate the demand for energy needed to cool buildings. Between August 6 and August 12, the weighted CDD index remained elevated, reflecting strong and persistent cooling demand in major U.S. states. Texas recorded a total of 143 CDDs for the week, the highest among the top-weighted states, indicating extreme and sustained heat that keeps air conditioning loads at peak levels. Florida (139 CDD) and Louisiana (137 CDD) also faced intense warmth and humidity, sustaining high residential and commercial cooling needs. New York (66 CDD) experienced warm conditions but with a notably lower cooling demand compared to southern states, while California’s relatively mild climate produced only 45 CDDs, underscoring its more temperate influence on the national weighted index.
Looking ahead to August 15–19, the forecast suggests that high CDD values will persist in Texas and much of the South, sustaining exceptional cooling loads. Florida and Louisiana are expected to remain hot and humid, maintaining their high cooling demand, while New York should see moderate warmth and increased air conditioning usage relative to early summer averages. California will continue contributing minimally to the weighted index due to cooler coastal influences, though interior areas may still add some demand. Overall, this CDD pattern signals sustained pressure on electricity and natural gas demand for power generation, especially in the southern U.S., where utilities will continue to rely heavily on gas-fired plants to meet air conditioning demand during this prolonged heat spell.
The weighted CDD index across the U.S. showed values above the seasonal norm, indicating stronger-than-average cooling demand across population centers. The index rebounded sharply after a dip in early August. Looking ahead, projections show the weighted CDD staying above normal, fluctuating between about 13 and 15, while the seasonal average trends slightly downward. This suggests that cooling demand will remain stronger than typical for mid-August, sustaining high levels of natural gas burn for power generation.
Weather Conditions in Europe: Heat Dome Envelops the Region
In Europe, the past week brought variable but increasingly extreme conditions. Early August was slightly warmer than average, with mean temperatures around 23.3°C — about 0.5–0.7°C above normal. From August 10 onward, a powerful heat dome enveloped much of the continent, triggering a prolonged heat wave across southern, western, and central regions. Daytime highs exceeded 40°C in countries including France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and the central Balkans, worsening existing drought conditions.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
The heat wave spread north and east, affecting the UK, Benelux, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Poland. As of now, abnormally high temperatures persist in Western and Central Europe, with anomalies reaching +10–15°C above average, particularly in France and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, northern and eastern Europe are seeing cooler air masses. In southern regions, heat and drought are maintaining high wildfire risks. The heat dome to persist and strengthen over western and central Europe, with temperatures around 30°C and in some places climbing to 35–40°C. This will sustain elevated cooling needs and could further strain regional energy systems. In fact, the heat, combined with unusually low wind levels, has kept gas-for-power demand high in Europe.
Source: https://forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/
In summary, extreme summer weather on both sides of the Atlantic is driving up natural gas consumption for cooling – record CDDs and power sector strain in the U.S. South/Central regions, and a continent-wide surge in European power sector gas burn due to the heat wave (compounded by low wind).
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: 2025 Renewed ATH
2025 has seen U.S. liquefied natural gas exports climb to all-time highs, a trend that has continued through August. Over the first eight months of 2025, total U.S. LNG exports are up about 22% year-on-year, reaching roughly 69 million tons – a record volume for that Jan–Aug period. This surge cements the United States’ position as the world’s largest LNG supplier (surpassing Australia and Qatar) after it first claimed the top spot in 2023.
Actual gas flow data underscore these records. Pipeline deliveries (“feedgas”) to U.S. LNG export terminals are running at or near record rates. So far in August, about 16.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas has been flowing to the eight major U.S. LNG plants – up from 15.5 Bcf/d in July. This exceeds the previous monthly high (which was ~16.0 Bcf/d in April), indicating that August could set a new record for LNG feedgas throughput. In other words, the export terminals are operating at very high utilization, some at record capacity, to meet overseas demand. The ramp-up of new facilities is a big part of this: for example, Venture Global announced that its new Plaquemines LNG export terminal (Louisiana) is already 77% operational (28 out of 36 trains online) as of mid-August. This new capacity is substantially.
Remarkably, the bulk of U.S. LNG is heading to Europe. Europe has accounted for over two-thirds of U.S. LNG export volumes so far in 2025, far outpacing Asia as the top buyer. In fact, Europe’s imports of U.S. LNG from January through August are 61% higher than the same period in 2024 – a huge year-on-year jump as European utilities and traders continue replacing Russian pipeline gas with American LNG. The top individual destination markets include countries like the Netherlands, France, and Spain, which together took about 28% of total U.S. LNG shipments in the first eight months. By contrast, Asian LNG purchases from the U.S. have dipped this year (reports indicate Asia’s intake of U.S. LNG is down ~35% vs last year), partly due to higher prices and increased competition from Europe. Higher global gas prices – driven in part by Europe’s voracious LNG demand – have actually led to some gas rationing in other regions, especially in Asia.
In the LNG trade arena, a few significant developments have occurred. One headline event is a legal victory by U.S. LNG exporter Venture Global over Shell: Venture Global disclosed this week that it won a court case regarding Shell’s failure to take delivery of contracted LNG volumes. This dispute resolution reinforces contract stability in LNG markets. Venture Global also highlighted the progress at its Plaquemines LNG facility, signaling that additional U.S. export capacity is ramping up faster than expected. On the import side, European companies are making strategic moves: several European utilities have been signing long-term U.S. LNG supply deals, and in the UK, a major LNG import terminal changed hands.
A significant market news item this week was the acquisition of Britain’s largest LNG import terminal. Centrica (the owner of British Gas) and U.S.-based Energy Capital Partners (ECP) jointly agreed to buy National Grid’s LNG terminal on the Isle of Grain (southeast England) for about £1.5 billion (≈$2.0 billion). The Grain LNG facility is the biggest LNG import terminal in Europe by tank capacity and one of the largest in the world. This deal underscores how crucial LNG infrastructure has become for Europe’s energy security. The acquisition by Centrica/ECP is aimed at securing stable import capacity for the UK in the long term. The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2025 pending regulatory and security approvals. This move by Centrica and ECP highlights confidence that demand for LNG imports will remain strong in Europe for the foreseeable future, given the new geopolitical reality. It also shows consolidation in the LNG market – major players are securing import terminals to lock in access to global gas supplies.
European Gas Storage Levels: Higher than Same Period in 2021, but Trailing Last Year’s
As of August 12, 2025, European Union gas storage levels stand at 72.49% full, notably higher than the same period in 2021 but still trailing last year’s exceptional fill of nearly 88%. Current inventories are also below the 2020 and 2024 levels, which were around 88.3% and 87.9% respectively, but far above the historical minimums. The steady injection trend seen since spring reflects strong LNG inflows, stable Norwegian pipeline deliveries, and moderated demand earlier in the summer. While storage is progressing toward the EU’s 90% target for early November, the current gap compared to recent peak years suggests there is still a push required in late summer and early autumn to reach maximum preparedness for the winter heating season.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
As of mid-August 2025, European gas storage levels show significant regional variation. Many Western and Southern European countries, including Spain, France, Italy, and Germany, are already at a high fill level, reflecting strong LNG imports and steady pipeline deliveries. Central European nations such as Poland and Austria have moderately high storage, indicating solid progress toward winter readiness. In contrast, parts of Northern Europe, notably Sweden, remain at a moderate level, while some Eastern European countries are at low levels, signaling potential supply vulnerabilities ahead of the heating season.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Over the past week, U.S. natural gas prices at Henry Hub declined from above $3.10/MMBtu to around $2.82/MMBtu, reflecting strong production levels, robust storage injections, and a brief moderation in cooling demand earlier in August. The steep drop on August 12–13 suggests a market reaction to both favorable supply fundamentals and short-term weather patterns that temporarily eased pressure on power generation demand. However, prices have since stabilized near $2.80/MMBtu, supported by forecasts of continued above-normal CDD in key southern demand hubs, which will keep air conditioning loads — and thus natural gas consumption in the power sector — elevated.
In Europe, the Dutch TTF benchmark hovered between €32 and €33/MWh for much of the week, equivalent to roughly $9.8–$10.1/MMBtu, before dipping to near €32/MWh on August 14. Strong storage levels — over 72% full in the EU as of mid-August — are capping price upside, but the ongoing heatwave and low renewable output in parts of Europe have kept gas-for-power demand steady.
In the short term, Henry Hub prices are expected to remain in the $2.75–$2.95/MMBtu range, with upward potential if forecasted heat persists or intensifies in high-population states like Texas, Florida, and Louisiana. Strong U.S. storage levels and record LNG exports will keep the market balanced, preventing any sharp price surge. For Europe, TTF prices are likely to stay within $9.5–$10.5/MMBtu, supported by firm summer power demand but restrained by high storage inventories. If the European heatwave continues alongside low wind generation, short-lived price spikes are possible, but the fundamental outlook remains stable heading toward autumn.