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Visualizing Permian oil & gas production (through August)

Permian – update through August 2018

This article contains interactive dashboards also available in the original blog post

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This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 17,650 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through August.

Oil production in the Permian from horizontal wells has continued to rise at an astonishing pace, adding about 1 million bo/d in production capacity in the 12 months through August, to about 2.7 million bo/d (with upward revisions coming).

The main driver behind this growth is the high level of completion activity; so far more than 2,800 horizontal wells have been completed this year, double the level of just 2 years ago, and 40% higher than last year.

As shown by the blue area in August, those wells that started so far this year were already contributing to more than half of the total output in that month.

 

Well productivity has not changed by much in the past 2 years, as shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are so far tracking a recovery slightly ahead of the average 2016 well, which is on a path to recover about 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 30 months on production (and hitting that level with a flow rate of ~100 bo/d).

 

Concho finalized the acquisition of RSP Permian in July, and is now the leading unconventional oil producer in the Permian (see ‘Top operators’), just ahead of Pioneer Natural Resources.

 

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.

The improvements in recovery trajectories over the past 8 years are clearly visible here, driven by major changes in well design (longer laterals, bigger frac jobs). However, since early 2016 these trajectories have not shown further clear gains, even though younger wells are still peaking at a higher rate than before.

Early next week I will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US.

The original post (which includes a brief manual) can be found here: http://bit.ly/2Ee0zms

Production data is subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data.
  • OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
  • FracFocus.org
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