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Brent, WTI oil prices April, 2018 - April, 2019

OPEC said in their Monthly Oil Market Report, 10 April 2019

World Economy

The global economic growth projection remains estimated at 3.6% for 2018, while for 2019 it is revised slightly downward to 3.2% from the 3.3% projected last month. The main downward revisions are made for the OECD economies. US 2018 growth remains unchanged at 2.9%, but 2019 growth was revised down from 2.5% to 2.4%. Euro-zone 2018 growth remains unchanged at 1.8%, while 2019 growth was revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%. Similarly, GDP growth in Japan was revised lower from 0.7% to 0.6% for 2019, compared with 0.8% in 2018. In the non-OECD economies, the main 2018 and 2019 forecasts remain unchanged. China’s growth forecast remains at 6.1%, after reaching 6.6% in 2018. India’s growth forecast remains at 7.1%, following 7.3% in 2018. Growth in Brazil remains unchanged at 1.8% in 2019, after seeing 1.1% in 2018, while Russia’s 2019 GDP growth forecast is also unchanged at 1.6%, following an upward revision of 2.3% for 2018.

World Oil Demand

In 2018, global oil demand growth was revised down by 20 tb/d from last month’s assessment amid weaker 4Q18 oil demand data from OECD Asia Pacific. Global oil demand in 2018 is now estimated to have increased by 1.41 mb/d y-o-y, reading 98.70 mb/d. Similarly, global oil demand in 2019 is revised downward by 30 tb/d from 1.24 mb/d to around 1.21 mb/d compared with last month’s projection and this is due to slower-than-expected economic activity compared with the expectations of a month earlier. As a result, total world demand for the year is now expected to reach 99.91 mb/d and exceed the 100.00 mb/d threshold during 2H19. OECD oil demand growth is projected to reach 0.21 mb/d, with OECD Americas leading the increase, while oil demand in the non-OECD region is projected to rise by around 1.0 mb/d, with Other Asia and China being the primary contributors to growth. 

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 was revised upward by 0.16 mb/d from the previous month’s report and is now estimated at 2.90 mb/d to average 62.37 mb/d. The adjustment was mainly due to upward revisions in the UK, Brazil and China. The main drivers of growth for the year were the US with 2.26 mb/d, along with Canada, Russia, the UK, Kazakhstan, and Qatar. Meanwhile Mexico, Norway and Vietnam are estimated to have seen the largest declines. In contrast, non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 was revised downward by 0.06 mb/d to average 2.18 mb/d, mainly due to extended maintenance in Kazakhstan, Brazil and Canada, which was partially offset by upward revisions to the US and Russia. Total non-OPEC supply in 2019 is now forecast to average 64.54 mb/d, with the US, Brazil, the UK, Australia and Ghana being the major contributors to growth, while Mexico, Kazakhstan, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d in 2018, unchanged from the previous estimate, to average 4.98 mb/d, and are forecast to grow by 0.09 mb/d  in 2019 to average 5.07 mb/d. In March 2019, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 534 tb/d to average 30.02 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 31.4 mb/d, 1.5 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 30.3 mb/d, around 1.1 mb/d lower than the estimated 2018 level.

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture

Thank Vladimir for the Post!

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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Apr 17, 2019 12:29 am GMT

Vladimir-- how do you see OPEC's decisions in the upcoming year affecting these numbers? Do you think they'll stay strong with the cuts they see as necessary?

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture
Vladimir Vinogradov on Apr 17, 2019 12:29 pm GMT

Matt - OPEC is trying to stabilize the oil market at a price level of $ 60 - $ 70. This is difficult because there is uncertainty in the market for supplies from Iran, Libya, Venezuela. All forecasts indicate that the price will be $ 60 - $ 65 this year. But who knows... :)

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