Demographic Trends Internationally

NYT: "How Shrinking Populations Fuel Divisive Politcs." I couldn't resist this story, even though it's in a widely read newspaper. The graphic is fascinating, projecting the change in working-age people by mid-century, demonstrating how some countries—such as the US—will have a net gain in population predominantly because of immigration + others will experience a net loss of citizens. Working-age populations will shrink in Europe, Brazil, China, Chile, Japan + Russia. "As countries get richer, people have fewer children; and it turns out that once birthrates fall, it’s really hard to get them back up again." Tax breaks, cash bonuses + 'even awards for heroism given to women who bear many children, none of those programs have made more than a marginal difference.' In the graphic, Australia, Canada and the United States have small green dots, indicating modest growth in working-age numbers. "This map strongly suggests that being able to attract and integrate large numbers of immigrants will be an important competitive advantage for countries in the coming decades." Otherwise there is a potential political doom loop. 'Rafaela Dancygier, a political scientist at Princeton University... has found that many of the areas in Europe where anti-immigration politics are on the rise share certain characteristics: They have aging populations, fewer workers and fewer children'. "Dancygier and others have found that areas going through depopulation are particularly receptive to far-right politics — putting policies to increase immigration further out of reach politically, even as they becomes more necessary economically." Schools + hospitals close, trains + buslines get shut down. There is 'a psychological effect: People feel neglected and undervalued by the political elite.' [As a personal note: I'm goin to focus on a bit of research on electrical grids, + will hold off on posting for a while.]