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White Paper

Factoring Behind the Meter Generation into the Demand Forecast Algorithm: ISO New England and New York ISO Case Studies

This report aims to achieve the following objectives:
• Describe the current methodologies used by two ISO’s (ISO New England and the New York ISO) to “factor in” the “yin-yang effect” of Behind the Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) supply resources in load forecasting
• Stimulate industry discussion on the need for an industry wide standard methodology for load forecasting that consistently incorporates the impact of BTM PV and establishes agreed semantics and business practices
• Differentiate the “old concept” of Peak Demand, “maximum electric power consumption of all consumers at a given moment in time” and the newly introduced “Peak Power from Grid Resources” (PPGR), peak demand concept, which represents the maximum amount of supply expected from grid resources
• Introduce the need for an “Estimated Peak Ramp Rate” (EPRR) as a risk factor representing the rate at which the loss/addition of Solar supply can impact demand and the corresponding requirement on Grid Resources ramping response (both increase and decrease) over a defined period (perhaps 5 minute grain) to maintain balance and system frequency

White Paper

Richard Brooks's picture

Thank Richard for the Post!

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Discussions

Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jan 4, 2019 2:37 pm GMT

Great resource-- thanks for sharing, Richard. The paper notes "no attempt is made to ascertain the accuracy or quality of the methodology," but I was wondering if perhaps you had any personal thoughts or insights into the accuracy between the twho methods presented?

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 4, 2019 7:44 pm GMT

Thanks, Matt. Honestly, I couldn't find enough detailed information about the actual formulas used by each ISO to make any determination. I really think "someone" in indsutry, perhaps NERC or NPCC or another regional apower authority might be the best choice to lead the conversation to develop a standard methodology that is both comprehensive and transparent in its design. Then we'll all know how it works and might even be able to influece the design.

Thanks for your comment. Cheers, Dick

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 28, 2019 3:37 pm GMT

It's not just ISO's that are having trouble managing Solar PV supply, here is another case in which a utility failed to properly plan for solar supply increases in Michigan

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