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Study Ties Epic California Drought, 'Frigid East' To Manmade Climate Change

In this Feb. 4, 2014 file photo a warning buoy sits on the dry, cracked bed of Lake Mendocino near Ukiah, Calif.

In this Feb. 4, 2014 file photo a warning buoy sits on the dry, cracked bed of Lake Mendocino near Ukiah, Calif. CREDIT: AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, file

Natural variability alone cannot explain the extreme weather pattern that has driven both the record-setting California drought and the cooler weather seen in the Midwest and East this winter, a major new study finds.

We’ve reported before that climate scientists had predicted a decade ago that warming-driven Arctic ice loss would lead to worsening drought in California. In particular, they predicted it would lead to a “blocking pattern” that would shift the jet stream (and the rain it could bring) away from the state — in this case a “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” of high pressure.

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters (subs. req’d) takes the warming link to the California drought to the next level of understanding. It concludes, “there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity.”

The NASA-funded study is behind a pay wall, but the brief news release, offers a simple explanation of what is going on. The research provides “evidence connecting the amplified wind patterns, consisting of a strong high pressure in the West and a deep low pressure in the East [labeled a ‘dipole’], to global warming.” Researchers have “uncovered evidence that can trace the amplification of the dipole to human influences.”

Dipole

As this figure shows, the amplitude of the dipole driving the extreme nature of the California drought is much higher than can be explained purely by natural causes, and greenhouse gases are needed to explain the difference. The release explains:

it is important to note that the dipole is projected to intensify, which means more extreme future droughts for California. Historical data show that the dipole has been intensifying since the late 1970s. The intensified dipole can be accurately simulated using a new global climate model, which also simulates the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Simulations with only natural variability show a weakening dipole, which is opposite to what is currently being observed. Moreover, the occurrence of the dipole one year before an El Nino/La Nina event is becoming more common, which can only be reproduced in model simulations when greenhouse gases are introduced into the system

This research fits a growing body of evidence — documented by Senior Weather Channel meteorologist Stu Ostro and others — that “global warming is increasing the atmosphere’s thickness, leading to stronger and more persistent ridges of high pressure, which in turn are a key to temperature, rainfall, and snowfall extremes and topsy-turvy weather patterns like we’ve had in recent years.”

The new study’s lead author, Dr. Simon Wang of the Utah Climate Center, told me in an email:

I personally think that the debate over global warming leading to stronger blocking has passed. The ongoing challenge is how we predict WHEN and WHERE those blocking will happen and affect WHICH region.

I asked one of the country’s top climatologists, Dr. Michael Mann, what he thought of this new research. I’ll give him the final word:

We know that human-caused climate change has played a hand in the increases in many types of extreme weather impacting the U.S., including the more pronounced heat waves and droughts of recent summers, more devastating hurricanes and superstorms, and more widespread and intense wildfires.

This latest paper adds to the weight of evidence that climate change may be impacting weather in the U.S. in a more subtle way, altering the configuration of the jet stream in a way that disrupts patterns of rainfall and drought, in this case creating an unusually strong atmospheric “ridge” that pushed the jet stream to the north this winter along the west coast, yielding record drought in California, flooding in Washington State, and abnormal warmth in Alaska. The recent IPCC assessment downplays these sorts of connections, making it very conservative in its assessment of risk, and reminding us that uncertainty in the science seems to be cutting against us, not for us. It is a reason for action rather than inaction.

The post Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change appeared first on ThinkProgress.

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Thank Joseph for the Post!

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Roger Arnold's picture
Roger Arnold on April 18, 2014

Anyone who doubts the seriousness of prolonged western drought need only visit Lake Mead, and note how far the water level has dropped below previously normal levels.  Unless something changes, it will soon become too low for power generation.  It’s an open question what will happen to Las Vegas after that.

It might be possible to increase rain and snowfall in the Colorado River watershed by piping sea water from California into dry lakes in Nevada.  Evaporation from newly created salt marshes would increase precipitation on the western slope of the Rockies, draining into the Colorada.  A natural desalination system.  

The energy cost of pumping a sufficient volume of seawater would be large — on the order of 5 – 10 kWh per cubic meter — but on the plus side, it could all be “as available” power from wind and solar resources. Or off-peak nuclear.  The pipeline would just need to be built in stages, with intermediate storage reservoirs between stages.  “Look, Ma, no more intermittency problem.”

A side effect of importing seawater to the Great Basin would be to create a large sink for atmospheric CO2.  Weathering of rocks has made Great Basin soils and sedimentary deposits highly alkaline. When alkaline soils mix with water, the resulting alkaline lakes are natural sinks for atmospheric CO2.  It would be difficult, and probably infeasible, to implement this approach at the scale needed to offset the many sources of of anthropogenic CO2, but it would help.  A carbon tax, and credit for the sequestered CO2, would help to pay the cost of the pipeline.

Engineer- Poet's picture
Engineer- Poet on April 19, 2014

I saw the tufa formations in Mono Lake, but it never occurred to me that the phenomenon might be deliberately produced for the sake of carbon sequestration.

How many other possibilities are out there?

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