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Paris Ratification Maths

The joint announcement by the US and China that they would ratify the Paris Agreement and the more recent announcement by Brazil has raised the prospect that the agreement could enter into force sooner rather than later. Could it even happen prior to COP22 in Morocco or at least by the end of 2016? Certainly the G20 gave entry into force a boost when they included this in their Communique earlier this month.

We reiterate our commitment to sustainable development and strong and effective support and actions to address climate change. We commit to complete our respective domestic procedures in order to join the Paris Agreement as soon as our national procedures allow. We welcome those G20 members who joined the Agreement and efforts to enable the Paris Agreement to enter into force by the end of 2016 and look forward to its timely implementation with all its aspects.

Paragraph 1 of Article 21 of the Agreement specifies the requirements for entry into force as follows;

This Agreement shall enter into force on the thirtieth day after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 percent of the total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

The UNFCCC is running a tracker page and the exact status by country can be found on the UN Treaties site.

entry-into-force

The combined emissions of China and the United States account for most of the 39% shown in the tracker picture above (mid-September). But of course they are only two parties, whereas 27 have ratified so far. Many of these are small island states, such as Barbados and the Cook Islands, some of which may be challenged in the near term by rising sea levels. So what might be a potential pathway to 55 / 55?

In terms of the number of parties, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) which consists of 44 members can get us most of the way there. With AOSIS and the 12 other non-AOSIS parties that had ratified by mid-September, the 55 Party threshold is surpassed. So it would appear that entry into force on this basis is achievable as other countries will doubtless come forward as well.

But 55% of global emissions may be a bit more difficult. The 40 AOSIS countries are all low emissions, so even their combined impact will be below 1% of global emissions. Starting with the USA, China and Brazil, the bar moves above 40% and with AOSIS, Norway, Peru and others who had ratified by mid-September it will approach 42%.

The 55 country and 55% line could easily be crossed with ratification by the other major emitter, the EU, but the parliamentary process in Brussels would normally push this into 2017. However, the political push behind the Paris Agreement can hardly be described as normal. At an EU leader summit last week, there was a strong indication given that EU ratification could happen in as little as three weeks.

If the EU fast track doesn’t happen, 13% of global emissions have to come from somewhere else. Some combinations of major emitters that could deliver this are as follows;

  1. Australia, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Thailand, Vietnam and Venezuela gets to about 10%.
  2. Russia and India are at least 5% each.
  3. Canada, Australia, Japan, Ukraine, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan also combine to about 10%
  4. Taiwan, Turkey, Algeria, Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, Nigeria, Malaysia, Kuwait, Iran and Indonesia combines to about 10%.

Russia and India are clearly important, as was Russia with the Kyoto Protocol. But their early ratification isn’t essential. The other lists above clearly show that there are sufficient 0.6-3% countries to get this over the line. The first list, combined with Iran and Indonesia is but one example.

Given progress to date, a concerted push by AOSIS and perhaps the likes of the Umbrella Group (a UNFCCC collection of countries including USA, Australia, Japan and Canada amongst others), entry into force of the Paris Agreement is quite feasible in the nearer term. With the EU on board it is almost certain.

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David Hone's picture

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