Global Adjustment: A Political Time Bomb in Ontario, Canada

02.11.10Peter Murphy, Associate, Gowlings LLP
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Prior to April, 2009, most Ontario electricity consumers in Ontario, Canada paid little attention to the "Provincial Benefit" line item on their electricity bills. They had little reason to. Since its inception in 2005, the Provincial Benefit, known in Ontario's electricity industry as the Global Adjustment, was a relatively small adjustment on Ontario electricity consumers' electricity bills.

A plunge in market prices for electricity and increased governmental payment obligations have made this overlooked price adjustment a powder keg of political resentment and consumer backlash. In April 2009, for the first time ever, the Global Adjustment charged to Ontario electricity consumers exceeded the market price of the electricity they purchased. In every month since then the Global Adjustment has been significantly greater than the market price for electricity purchased by these consumers.

The Global Adjustment is the difference between the rates paid by Ontario governmental authorities to regulated and contracted electricity generators and the spot market prices for electricity consumed in Ontario. If the amount paid by Ontario governmental authorities for the generation of the electricity is higher than the market price for the electricity, a positive Global Adjustment is charged to Ontario electricity consumers. If the amount paid by Ontario governmental authorities for the generation of the electricity is lower than the market price for such electricity, a negative Global Adjustment is credited to Ontario electricity consumers.

The amounts paid by Ontario governmental authorities that are factored into the Global Adjustment fall into four categories: (1) amounts payable for nuclear and baseload hydroelectric generation by Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPG), (2) amounts paid for non-utility generation administered by the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC), (3) payment made by OEFC to OPG in support of OPG's CO2 reduction strategy, and (4) amounts paid under agreements between the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) and electricity generators and suppliers of conservation services. Each of these three categories of governmental payment is explained in more detail below.

In the case of OPG's regulated hydroelectric and nuclear generators, a fixed price for electricity is set by the OEB. If the net revenue earned from the sale of electricity produced by these regulated baseload generators is less than the regulated price, the difference is charged to electricity consumers as part of the Global Adjustment. If the net revenue from OPG's sale of this electricity is more than the OEB's fixed price, the excess is credited to consumers.

Non-utility generators (NUGs) are generators that are not owned by the former Ontario Hydro. These generators provide electricity at set prices under power purchase agreements with what is now the OEFC. As is the case with the OPG base-load regulated generators, the difference between the OEFC's net revenue from the sale of this electricity and the amount that it pays to the NUGs under power purchase agreements is charged to electricity consumers as a component of the Global Adjustment.

Certain payments made by OEFC to support OPG's carbon-reduction strategies are also recouped through the Global Adjustment. Under a contingency support agreement, OEFC makes payments to OPG to provide for the continued reliability and availability of OPG's Lambton and Nanticoke, Ontario generating stations. This arrangement enables OPG to recover the costs of these coal-fired generating stations following implementation of OPG's CO2 reduction strategy.

The final component of the Global Adjustment arises under OPA contracts for generation and demand management projects. Some of these projects were setup through the OPA's former "Request for Proposals" process while other projects resulted in power purchase contracts without recourse to the RFP process. The OPA provides guaranteed revenue to electricity suppliers under these agreements. If the project earns net revenue that is less than the guaranteed amount, the difference is made up from a charge to the Ontario consumer through the Global Adjustment.

April 2009 saw an unprecedented change in the Global Adjustment. Until then the Global Adjustment had never exceeded 1.44 cents per kWh, and in the vast majority of months it had been less than 1 cent per kWh. In April, 2009 the Global Adjustment shot up to 3.020 cents per kWh and has remained above 3 cents per kWh each month since, except for June 2009 when it dipped to the still relatively high amount of 2.79 cents per kWh.

By covering the gap between the market price for electricity consumed in Ontario and the amount Ontario governmental authorities contract to pay out in the categories outlined above, the Global Adjustment reduces the volatility of electricity prices and passes the cost of new generation projects and global warming strategies on to consumers. This procedure enables the Ontario government to offer price certainty to new generation and demand management projects, spurring the development of new electricity supply projects in Ontario. It also serves as a mechanism for the Ontario government to pass certain costs of its global warming strategies on to the consumer.

However, consumer resentment may be growing now that reduced economic activity, particularly in Ontario's flagging manufacturing sector, has contributed to a steep decline in spot market electricity prices. The Global Adjustment has prevented the benefits of low electricity market prices from being passed on to the Ontario consumers, many of whom badly need it, particularly in light of the rising Canadian dollar.

Hardest hit are consumers who signed retail contracts at locked-in prices before the electricity market price crashed. Retail contracts provide the consumer a fixed price for electricity, subject to the floating Global Adjustment. Consumers that locked into fixed rates under retail contracts before the market prices crashed have experienced a double whammy - locked-in fixed rates that exceed the current market price, plus a drastically increased Global Adjustment.

The guaranteed rates being offered by the OPA under its new Feed-In-Tariff program will put continued upward pressure on the Global Adjustment, by producing a source of new governmentally-guaranteed pricing for electricity generation.

As a result, it appears Ontario electricity consumers are not going to experience relief from high electricity bills in the foreseeable future.

 
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Copyright 2012 CyberTech, Inc.

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Reader's Comments

Date Comment
Len Gould
2.12.10
A reakky sad mess of an electricity market. What specific government initiative caused the spike in global adjustment last year? Is it the new wind farms?

Harry Valentine
2.12.10
Peter,

I certainly commend you on your analysis of the Ontario power pricing situation. This is not the first time that Ontario has gotten itself into a debacle with electric power generation. The accumulation of a $32-billion debt was the result of an earlier debacle. The Ontario situation illustrates the negative side of power regulation. Paying producers $0.80/kW-hr for solar-PV electric power is a case in point.

The premier of Ontario is reluctant to entertain ideas on any kind of power de-regulation, no matter how small. Repealing the prohibition on private power lines across private property lines could have allowed neighbours to have co-operated on their own unsubsidized, off-grid,small--site pwer generation technologies. Politically, Ontario has to allow power prices to rise very gradually for the home market to avoid a voter backlash. Under present economic conditions, business and industry can barely afford massive price hikes. The Government of Ontario and the energy regulator have literally painted themselves into a corner with their brand of power regulation.

Jack Ellis
2.12.10
Price stability? What price stability? If the adjustment is moving around every month, it's hard to see how consumers are protected from what would otherwise be volatile market prices.

The price of electricity is largely cost-driven. Instead of trying to hide the costs with a sily shell game, it's time we leveled with consumers and explained the facts. I think the public actually has a surprisingly solid grasp of basic economics, but regulators and politicians continue to play the populist card.

[Rant On] Either electricity is abundant and cheap, or it's expensive and scarce (or could be made abundant and expensive), but it can't be scarce and cheap. Talking about conservation while keeping prices artificially low just confuses the public. So does trying to hide the real cost. [/Rant Off]

Ferdinand E. Banks
2.13.10
Interesting. The electricity market in Sweden is a farce, but one reason is that many of the people teaching economics, and almost all of the people working with energy econonomics are morons, liars, crooks, fools, and/or charlatans. But I don't see why it should be that way in e.g. Ontario. The people that I used to meet from Canada at the energy conferences were mostly OK. By the way, Is the 'deregulation experiment' still taking place in Canada?

Bob Amorosi
2.14.10
Ontario’s deregulation experiment is still taking place at the wholesale generator level but for Ontario's 5 million plus customers it is still firmly regulated. As the article and comments above nicely explain, the experiment has been massively complicated by adjustments, legacy debt loads from the past Ontario Hydro, and astronomical subsidies for renewable source generators. You can easily argue Ontario is heading into a more regulated system, not less. The old government-owned Ontario Hydro was allowed to pile up tens of billions in debt to maintain some of the cheapest customer rates in North America for decades. This was an intentional and quite successful strategy that attracted large numbers of manufacturing companies to set up shop in Ontario, making us and the surrounding regions one of the biggest industrial heartlands in North America. Rates did not reflect the true cost of generation and was ultimately unsustainable. In breaking up Ontario Hydro we got saddled with paying debt retirement charges added to everyone’s bills. The deregulation experiment was started at the same time to ‘somehow’ lower costs of producing electricity. But costs are headed in fact up, way up, not down. As Harry states, the big problem today for the Ontario government is keeping a lid on customer rate growth because allowing them to rise too fast is a political nightmare. Even slowly rising rates is politically toxic for whatever government party is in power. With a devastated manufacturing sector in Ontario’s economy the public cannot tolerate price increases greater than inflation without damaging the competitiveness and viability of the many surviving companies and small businesses still hanging on. The latest introduction of massive subsidies for renewable sources tied to the condition of 50% Ontario hardware content is essentially a make-work scheme to attract new industry to Ontario. It is working but down the road Ontarian’s electricity customers will pay dearly for it.

Harry Valentine
2.14.10
The recent $7-billion wind power deal that Ontario recently signed may deliver far less than the Ontario government may expect. Many jurisdictions across North American require local manufacturing of wind power generation technology, including Quebec. Quebec's west coast along James Bay and Hudson Bay offers the greatest potential for offshore wind power development on the continent.

Wind power development between Quebec's hydroelectric power dams and James Bay and Hudson Bay could convert the humid summer air to mist, with the potential to increase rainfall over the watershed region of the power dams. Except there is no way that Quebec dare import wind power technology . . . the secessionist sector of the Quebec population would be in an uproar.

Electric power in Ontario and the development of electric power technology in Ontario will become a political hot potato in the years ahead.

Ferdinand E. Banks
2.15.10
Bob, piling up debts in order to obtain one of the largest industrial heartlands in North America makes all the economic sense in the world to this humble teacher of economics and finance. Of course, if it happened in Ontario as it happened in Sweden, where the voters favored ignoramuses before and when they went to the polls, then even the good things could turn sour.

Bob Amorosi
2.15.10
Fred, I will agree that piling up debts made great sense creating an industrial economic powerhouse. It was brilliant in fact so long as that powerhouse kept going, and indeed it did for decades. Today it has been decimated, much like what has happened in much of the US. With much less wealth creation from a now smaller manufacturing base, it's tougher to pay back a huge mortgage without hardship. So one could argue the massive subsidies being doled out for renewable source generation in Ontario is also a wise strategy if it brings more investment and factories and jobs again.

The sad part is our federal government has AECL on the auction block trying to sell it off, apparently because they viewed as a money loser being federally subsidized to keep them viable every year. Even though they have some of the world's leading edge nuclear reactor technology, they suffer annual losses because not enough reactors are being made. AECL priced themselves out of the bidding for new reactors at Darlington this past year, along with Areva. Had either of them played a little negotiation to lower their bid prices for construction , the Ontario government would have been more than happy to order more reactors, but apparent greed ruled the day as they stuck to their guns, and with several alternative generation sources competing with them, they haven’t yet learned to tighten their own belts an settle for less money.

Ferdinand E. Banks
2.16.10
Bob, the problem is allowing humans to run for office instead of computers. If people could vote for computers instead of people, maybe we wouldn't be in the trouble that we are today.

Yes, this thing with AECL sounds crazy, and it evidently is crazy, although selling it off and letting somebody take the fall is OK as long as that firm stays in business. Given my intuition about nuclear, I suspect that Canada needs AECL, and you are right about AECL and Areva cooperating, which almost certainly would have been possible if - as you say - greed had not ruled the day. Greed and stupidity on someone's part I suspect. When are these high flyers going to smarten up?

Len Gould
2.16.10
Certainly Ontario would have contracted with AECL if its owners/board of directors had been willing to guarantee a reasonable fixed price, even if quite high, say $4,000 / kw.

It's almost too easy to compare present events with AECL to the time when a federal government of the same party trashed out deHaviland/AVRoe and the Arrow fighter-bomber program, also in Ontario. They claim it is "market must rule" philosophy, but is pretty hard to avoid calling it pure spite and envy by the western and rural conservatives then and now, with a healthy mix of western oilmans desire to kill an energy competitor.

Bob Amorosi
2.16.10
Len, not only is it Conservative party philosophy, agreed, but it's also the federal government's massive run-up in the deficit this past year, spending billions to stimulate the recession-ravaged economy. Their projected deficits are now structural, predicted to linger for many years because tax revenues have taken a huge hit from lost manufacturing jobs and corporate taxes that are never coming back. So their thinking is start selling off government assets like AECL to raise money in the short term, effectively for political short-term gain because it will appear like they are successfully lowering the deficit but they will need other measures to lower it over time. Ontario's current budget deficit is in much the same sorry state.

The City of Toronto got away with selling off assets and drawing on cash reserves over the last decade to address their structural budget deficits ever since the provincial Conservatives downloaded social services to municipalities over ten years ago. But in Toronto the cupboard is now practically bare, so spending cuts and higher taxes are their only choices left, and will soon be the only choices for our provincial and federal governments.

Don Hirschberg
2.16.10
“The old government-owned Ontario Hydro was allowed to pile up tens of billions in debt to maintain some of the cheapest customer rates in North America for decades. This was an intentional and quite successful strategy that attracted large numbers of manufacturing companies to set up shop in Ontario…”

How do you spell Ponzi Scheme? Version B.gov.

Len Gould
2.16.10
Don: It was no more a Ponzi scheme than any other government debt. Clearly intended to be eroded away by inflation before the capital became due, but the stupid conservative party in Ontario went and booked it to ratepayers in 2000 when they "de-regulated" the electricity system. Just one more stupid move of the religious followers of that nutty Chicago School of economics.

Don Hirschberg
2.16.10
Len: - or just maybe this mess demonstrates why the government should not have been in the business of making and marketing electriciy.to advance its oun ulterior agenda. Did the government say to its good citizens, psst, "We are going to lure some suckers in by giving them dishonestly low electricity rates thereby piling up debt which you will eventually have to pay? (and if the day of reckoning is beyond my term, so much the better." )

"debt...Clearly intended to be eroded away by inflation before the capital became due..", Hooray, a source of free money scheme too.

Still looks like a Ponzi or a bait and switch to me. "Clearly intended" to be venal in either case. .

Len Gould
2.17.10
Don: And exactly how is that state which lured Google to build a huge new data centre in its jurisdiction with a 30 year tax break any different?

Bob Amorosi
2.17.10
Don, there are loads of examples of state government tax breaks throughout history that lured manufacturing plants to set up shop and create jobs for their locals.

Furthermore, the story of Ontario Hydro should be no surprise given the economic rules that are foisted on our electricity systems have always been extremely political. Governments are allowed to distort free markets with their own rules whenever they see fit to stimulate some sector of the economy, and when it comes to electricity, it's the whole economy. You may call them legalized Ponzi schemes, but just look how many big US and other corporations have enthusiastically jumped on these pork-barrel trains over the years.

Don Hirschberg
2.17.10
Len and Bob: I never said these kinds of political shenanigans were not done, I said the Ontario mess is a good example of why they shouldn’t be done. A well defined and announced tax incentive is not the same thing as adding through a labyrinth of complications to everyone’s monthly electric bills.

A corporation has to act in the perceived best interests of its shareholders and cannot just refuse an incentive their competitor will accept. It is a sordid business. An incentive by government can look very much like a bribe from outside of government.

Bob Amorosi
2.17.10
Don, the years of piling up of debt by the old crown owned Ontario Hydro was also well defined while it transpired. The Ontario governments sitting at that time publicly acknowledged costs at Ontario Hydro were climbing unacceptably fast, and it was being intentionally financed by government borrowing instead of allowing electricity rates to go up substantially, all purposely done as a publicly financed social benefit to everyone in Ontario. Instead of awarding a well-defined tax incentive to a single corporation, it was an award to every Ontario business.

The travesty was when as Len says the Conservatives in power in 2000 decided to break up Ontario Hydro, privatize portions of it, and book the debt onto ratepayers bills long before the debt was due to be paid back at lower value. Had this not happened, over time Ontario's taxpayers would have absorbed the debt which is NO DIFFERENT than taxpayers absorbing the tax revenue losses from those untold numbers of tax incentives doled out to lure individual companies.

Don Hirschberg
2.17.10
“… it (Ontario Hydro) was being intentionally financed by government borrowing instead of allowing electricity rates to go up substantially, all purposely done as a publicly financed social benefit to everyone in Ontario.”

Bob, who responsibly signed those notes indemnifying the rate payers? Not the bureaucrats and politicians who are never on the hook. What is easier than giving away other peoples money and then taking a bow? Was this a social benefit, for all as you see it? No, I see it as dishonestly not allowing rates to go up by simply not paying the bills as they accrued? In this drama government seems to have played all the roles. Irresponsibly.

I do not agree that this was no different than tax incentives. Legislatures are in the business of setting tax rates. They should not be concomitantly setting electricity rates and running the electricity business.

Bob Amorosi
2.18.10
"Legislatures are in the business of setting tax rates. They should not be concomitantly setting electricity rates and running the electricity business."

What planet are you living on Don? This is precisely what happens all the time in North America because our electricity industry regulators are put in place by government to begin with! And the regulators dictate rates in case you haven't noticed.

Like I have already said, electricity rates are extremely political in North America so don't expect anything less than a constant government hand in setting the rules for them. I'll repeat the old Ontario Hydro was a crown-owned corporation.

This is what we've been accustomed to in Ontario for decades. Call it socialism if you wish, but there are loads of examples at the provincial (or state) and federal government level where ALL taxpayers foot the bills for government designed and administered social programs and government owned businesses.

Bob Amorosi
2.18.10
Don, I will grant you one thing - there's never any guarantee the political party sitting in power will always COMPETENTLY run government owned businesses or set the rules for our electricity industries. They are just as fallible as business people in the private sector running corporations.

Some politicians sitting in office in Washington have even been rumored (heaven forbid) to have police records in their past for committing crimes before getting elected. Don't really know if this is true or not, but I'll bet it's very possible.

Don Hirschberg
2.18.10
Bob, I’ve been here on this planet right along. My electric companies have been of only two types: Investor owned or Co-ops. As sanctioned monopolies they must get approval from some kind of government body to raise rates. Fair enough. And of course if they want to build a new plant there are many layers of permitting which can, and does, take years.

But it’s your notion that governments can run business as well or better than those not in government that I can’t swallow. (I can’t say that I have ever heard a politician make that claim.)

They don’t believe that anymore even in China.

Anecdote: All this talk about Hydo reminds me of an ordeal I had in Sarnia many years ago. Hydro asked for a trouble shooter to come to their chemical plant in Sarnia. And I was elected. They also asked me to hand carry a small part they needed along with documentation. Now I don’t remember who all those officials were at the border but there were several kinds, I suppose federal, provincial, and maybe two kinds of police.

Why was I coming to Canada/Ontario? I told them. Then you are here to work in Canada? Why can’t a Canadian do it? Do you have a permit to work in Canada?

I showed them the package and documents for the part I was carrying. They said I could not bring any parts into Canada. (In Detroit I had seen steady streams of cars going back and forth to Winsor.)

They thoroghly searched my stuff as I have never before or since been searched. They found three new tee shirts (still in their wrapper). Why are you bringing these into Canada? You cannot import clothes to Canada (at that time underwear and work clothes were cheaper in the US.

I was told that I must have a document certifying that whatever I was going to do in Canada could not be done by a Canadian. And another document certifying that the part I was carrying could not be obtained in Canada.

Well I think I had to leave my car at the customs station, less the tee shirts – Eventually Hydro sent a car for me. The next day Hydro people retrieved the part. The plant folks were all very gracious and whatever I did or told them solved the problem and I believe I only spent one or two nights there. It had to do with making plastic for golf balls!!

A humorous side note: During my hours at the customs station I noticed men in small boats crossing from Michigan and coming ashore. “Oh, those are Indians, they go back and forth all the time. And they don’t recognize national borders. “

When I went to troubleshoot at a Winnipeg (Ste Boniface? )refinery and to startup a refinery at Saskatoon (had a great time) I took no new clothes, no packages and carefully avoided using the word “work.” But I did get screwed coming and going converting currency = I never did see how I could be charged 10% each way?

Bob Amorosi
2.18.10
"But it’s your notion that governments can run business as well or better than those not in government that I can’t swallow."

Don, I don’t believe this to be true in a sweeping general sense since obviously there are far more examples of businesses that governments would fail miserably at running, like for example the multibillion dollar steel industry in my home town of Hamilton. There are some businesses however best left up to the government running, like the public health care we have in Canada. If it became fully privatized as you have in the US, the public in Canada would never tolerate millions of people left without the ability to afford health care insurance, and the untold thousands that go bankrupt and have to sell their homes to pay for hospital services. The tradeoff here of course is less efficiency with rationed services i.e. long waiting lists in many surgery cases, and less leading-edge medical technologies.

Oddly enough the decision by the Conservative government in Ontario to split up Ontario Hydro in 2000, and privatize large parts of it, was done for exactly the reason that the private sector should be able to do a much more efficient job of cost control. It was also a means for a “deregulation experiment” on the wholesale market side of electricity for generator companies, now separated from local distribution companies in Ontario. Significantly lower costs expected however remain to be seen yet.

I will also grant you the massive headaches trying to cross our common border for business purposes, in BOTH directions. It has always been plagued by massive frustration and the politics of customs officials, whose rules all come from the feds. Since 9/11 in 2001 these headaches have been made worse in some instances because of homeland security concerns. Did I mention too the latter was all precipitated by Washington, not the Canadians.

Don Hirschberg
2.18.10
Bob, we are practically related. My father’s mother was born in Goderich, Ontario (maybe 100 miles up the Lake Huron Shore from Port Huron/Sarnia) in 1877 to my Orange Irish great grand parents I presume on their way to Chicago. Could Goderich have been a port at that time?

Bob Amorosi
2.19.10
Sorry Don, no Orange Irish blood in my family, not with an Italian last name like mine.

On the subject of this article, if the Global Adjustment is an unfair measure in Ontario that will lead to a political time bomb, you can bet your bottom dollar that the ruling party in Ontario's government will eventually come up with a way to diffuse it before it blows up. The government of Ontario has a rich history in tinkering with the rules our electricity industry must follow, and with consumer price regulation, so just watch them do something to deal with the Global Adjustment problem down the road.

Len Gould
2.20.10
Don: Your experiences with Cdn customs and immigration mirror mine with US customs exactly when I used to consult and sell customized computer systems into the US from Canada. I rapidly learned the proper wortding, forms list, patience and subservient attitude to border guards and customs agents required to get anything done. Makes business extremely costly though.

john Marsh
5.20.10
Touchtone IVR systems enable customers to self-process many service functions without human intervention. Companies flocked to touchtone systems credit reports like moths to a flame, some with almost as disastrous results, and proved that the mere application of technology didn’t solve all their problems. Only with careful implementation and design did touchtone IVR systems improve the bottom line answering service while increasing customer satisfaction. And those are not mutually exclusive goals, as companies with whom we’ve worked know first hand. If technology could solve customer interface problems automatically, then why do we continually experience IVR systems whose poorly designed menus and scripts frustrate both customers and service representatives alike and under-deliver on their investment? The foreclosed homes answer is not that the technology failed, it’s that it wasn’t applied properly. Poorly designed systems and continuous subtle changes over time often encourage customers to underutilize the technology that offers small personal loan so much potential. The same result will follow from poorly implemented ASR systems, as research is documenting daily

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