Middle East Countries Putting the Sun to Work Overtime

12.16.10Ramanathan Menon, Editor and Publisher, Sun Power
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While renewable energy production scenario is improving slowly in many developing nations, more action is now happening in the oil producing countries of the Middle East. Because, Middle East countries which have been leading the non-renewable energy race for the past few decades have now turned their sights to leading a new race -- A race to become the world's leading producers and exporters of renewable energy.

Forecasts suggest that by 2050, up to half of the Middle East's required energy will come from renewable sources, of which solar is expected to make up a large percentage. The Middle East receives 3,000 -- 3,500 hours of sunshine per year, with more than 5.0 kW/m2 of solar energy per day. Solar energy has the potential to equip the Middle East with centuries of sustainable, clean electricity. A solar power plant the size of Lake Nasser has the capacity of supplying the electricity needs of the entire region.

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton, in his speech in Saudi Arabia in January 2006 to 400 business people from the Persian Gulf said: "If I where you, I would stop trying to make Saudi Arabia the oil capital of the world and make Saudi Arabia the energy capital of the world. You should take your cash right now and go out and buy half the solar capacity in the whole world and you should start at the equator. All the way around the equator and go north and south until you put solar power everywhere the weather will tolerate it. You will save the planet and get richer."

Abu Dhabi, where Sun does overtime: The emirate of Abu Dhabi -- one of the world's leading oil and gas producers -- has its focus on the future. A post-oil future. Abu Dhabi has started to put into practice a bold commitment to renewable and sustainable technologies that will enable it to continue as an energy leader after oil has declined.

As a result, Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, was chosen last year to be the headquarters of the newly formed International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena). One of Irena's main activities will be the collection, generation and sharing of knowledge about renewable energy.

Irena, the first international agency to be based in a developing country, will create an international network of experts and will advise members on the financing of renewable energy projects. It also will build a comprehensive global database of policies to promote renewable energy. The agency will be housed in Masdar City, a new, $22 billion city, under construction near Abu Dhabi International Airport, that will be powered entirely by renewable energy. Masdar City aims to become the Silicon Valley for clean, green and alternative energy. More than 1,500 companies from around the world will locate there to fund, research, develop and implement new and sustainable technologies.

The carbon-neutral, zero-waste city, designed by UK-based architectural firm Foster & Partners, will include the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology. The institute, which is modeled on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, enrolled 90 students from 22 countries in September 2009.

Masdar, also known as Abu Dhabi Future Energy, is a subsidiary of Mubadala Development, the investment vehicle of the Abu Dhabi government. "The Masdar Initiative is a continuation and evolution of Abu Dhabi's five decades of leadership as a global energy provider," says Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Masdar. The city will also demonstrate the practical viability and appeal of living in an alternative-energy environment, he says in a statement on the company's website.

Abu Dhabi has committed $14 billion to the project, with another $8 billion expected to come from outside investors. The Masdar Clean Tech Fund closed its first round of financing in last February after raising $265 million. The fund is co-managed by Masdar Venture Capital and DB Climate Change Advisors, part of Deutsche Bank's asset management business. Credit Suisse and Siemens were among the investors. The fund will support water and waste-management projects.

No automobiles will be allowed within Masdar City's walls. A solar-powered water desalination plant will provide water for the city's population, which could reach 50,000.

Meanwhile, neighboring Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in joining Irena and has begun work on its first solar-powered desalination plant to serve 100,000 people in Al Khafji, which is located near the border with Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia will emerge as a major exporter of solar energy, which could reach the current level of the kingdom's oil exports, according to US energy secretary Steven Chu. "The kingdom's drive to invest a portion of its oil revenue on scientific and technical research will enable it to strengthen diversification of energy sources and promote renewable energy programs."

Khaled Al-Nabulsi, a professor at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah, says that studies have proved that Saudi Arabia could become the largest exporter of solar energy in the world. The country has the capability to produce large amounts of solar energy due to its great expanse of open areas exposed to direct sunlight, he says.

In the Kingdom of Bahrain, which has an abundance of solar energy and wind energy, wind power has been used through the use of turbines to generate nearly 13% of the total energy of the Bahrain World Trade Centre. The kingdom has also begun the implementation of a pilot project on the use of solar energy in street lighting.

In Qatar, plans are afoot for a $1 billion solar project, according to Shadi Abu Daher, manager of the World Trade Center in Doha. This is the right time to launch major projects, he says, because construction costs in Qatar have fallen by 40% from their peak as a result of the financial crisis and real estate slowdown. Qatar Foundation announced a joint venture with SolarWorld, based in Germany, to produce polysilicon, the main ingredient in solar panels, at a $500 million plant in northern Qatar.

The Authority for Electricity Regulation, Oman has confirmed a shortlist of six (6) renewable energy pilot projects, two (2) for immediate implementation and four (4) that may proceed following further discussion with the developers.

The pilot project shortlist is: Two (2) pilot projects will proceed to implementation subject to finalization of certain technical and contractual matters with the Developers and Rural Areas Electricity Company SAOC (RAEC). The two projects are: (i) A 500 kW wind project in Masirah Island (Developer: Gulf Renewable Energy, a BOO project); and (ii) A 100 kW PV solar project in Hij (incorporating 50 kW of thin film and 50 kW of mono crystalline) (Developer: Itochu Corporation a EPC project).

The Authority will engage with the developers of four (4) short-listed projects that merit further and serious consideration to see if terms can be agreed to move the projects to implementation. These projects are: (i) A 4,200 kW wind project in Saih Al Khairat, a Wilyiat of Thumrait (Developer: Zubair/Tefirom/Suzlon, a BOO project); (ii) A 292 kW solar project in Al Mazyonah (Developer: DSME/Conergy/Bahwan Engineering, a BOO project); (iii) A 1,500 kW project at location to be confirmed (Developer: Centrotherm Photovoltaics AG, Nvalue GmbH, Merit International, a BOO project); and (iv) A 28 kW solar project in Al Mathfa incorporating battery storage capability (Developer: Phoenix Solar / Silver Circle, a BOO project).

The six short-listed projects totally offer 6.6MW of renewable capacity at an investment cost of some 8.1 million RO. The projects, if implemented, would allow RAEC to replace 11GWh of annual diesel generation with renewable sourced electricity, this would reduce diesel fuel consumption by 3.1 million liters per year and avoid 8,298 metric tons of CO2 per year.

Jordan's best wind resources are in Aqaba and the Jordan Valley, and the government intends to build 600 MW of wind by 2015 and a further 600-1,000 MW by 2020. In summer 2010 negotiations for Jordan's first wind farm were under way again (having stalled earlier) -- this is to be a 30-40 MW wind power plant in Kamshah.

Syria's target is for renewable energy to make up 4.3% of primary energy demand by 2011, and it has two wind farms (100 MW and 30 MW) in planning, with two locations being opened up for investment by Syrian and foreign companies.

A new plan for Syrian energy, entitled `Masterplan for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies' (MEERE), is being drawn up together with the Germany's GTZ (Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit -- German Technical Cooperation) and expected to be released later this year. Meanwhile an interim MEERE report from January 2010 confirmed that Syria has good potential for wind energy development, and indicated that a possible 2030 target could be 1,000-1,500 MW.

Sultanate of Oman is a small country with only 2.6 million inhabitants, and considerable reserves of natural gas and crude oil, and a total installed power generation capacity of around 3.5 GW. To meet increasing demand, this is forecast to grow by 2.8 GW by 2014. Natural gas and oil exports account for around half of Oman's GDP, and preserving its reserves is the key incentive for the government to look at developing the country's renewable energy resources.

A recent study commissioned by the government found an excellent potential for solar energy deployment and considerable wind power potential. Wind energy could be developed mainly in the southern part of Oman and in the mountains north of Salalah. Interestingly, the measured wind speeds were highest in summer months, when electricity demand in Oman is at its peak.

The GWEO scenarios For Middle East: Considering the significant potential for wind power in some Middle Eastern countries, the GWEO scenarios for the region are by far more optimistic than the IEA's Reference scenario. This forecasts that the region's total installed wind capacity, which stood at 101 MW by the end of 2009, will grow to around 2.5 GW by 2020 and 6 GW by 2030.

Under the Moderate scenario, which takes into account current and anticipated government targets and a growing interest in reaping the benefits wind power can bring to the region, the Middle East's installed wind capacity would grow to 2.5 GW by 2020 and 24.8 GW by 2030. In the Advanced scenario, this would grow even further, to reach 10.5 GW by 2020 and 34.2 GW by 2030.

The electricity generated through wind power in these scenarios would enable some of the Middle Eastern countries to improve their energy independence and help those rich in fossil fuel resources to realise considerable fuel savings.

By 2020, between 6 (Moderate scenario) and 26 tWh (Advanced scenario) could be produced every year, and this would increase to 61-84 tWh by 2030. Accordingly, CO2 emission savings would be between 3.6 and 15.5 million tons per year by 2020, and as much as 36.5 and 50 million tons by 2030.

World Future Energy Summit -- An Impetus to Middle East's Clean Energy Initiatives: Since its inception in 2008, World Future Energy Summit "WFES" has evolved as the world's foremost and must-attend annual meeting for the renewable energy and environment industry. In 2010 WFES uniquely brought together over 24,760 attendees from 148 countries including world leaders, international policy makers, industry leaders, investors, experts, academia, intellectuals and journalists to find practical and sustainable solutions for today's energy security and climate change challenges.

WFES promotes innovation and investment opportunities surrounding renewable energy and environment. It represents an unrivalled business platform bringing together project owners and solution providers with investors and buyers from both the public and private sectors.

WFES includes a world class summit, two exhibitions, young future energy leaders program, round table discussions, industry and investment seminars, corporate meetings and social events.

The imminently upcoming WFES-2011 in January 17-20, 2011, in Abu Dhabi, is expected to offer an excellent opportunity to present solutions for a modern and sustainable energy system.

Masdar, the Mastermind: Established in April 2006, in Abu Dhabi, Masdar is a multi-faceted company advancing the development, commercialisation and deployment of renewable energy solutions and clean technologies. Masdar integrates the full renewable and clean technology lifecycle -- from research to commercial deployment -- with the aim of creating scalable clean energy solutions. Masdar works with global partners and institutions to integrate new research with proven technologies to produce efficient systems and processes that can be replicated globally.

Our beautiful planet gives us the opportunity to make proper use of sunlight, flowing water, strong winds, and hot springs and convert these into energy. These energy sources are abundant and free to use. We must be sure that we convert the energy the right way, without causing other problems that can again hurt our environment. Luckily, the many efforts by individuals and companies show that this can be done.

 
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Copyright 2012 CyberTech, Inc.

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Reader's Comments

Date Comment
Harry Valentine
12.16.10
Excellent Article. You've provided a good perspective as to the renewable energy potential of the Middle East. The combination of the latitudes and the arid climate gives certain solar-thermal technologies a definate advantage. Peak demand for electric power across the Middle East, North Africa and Europe coincides when solar energy over the Middle East is at its peak. It may take a few years for some of the evolving and contemporary renewable power technologies to operate at competitive cost.

Ramanathan Menon
12.17.10
Dear Harry:

Thanks for being the first person to register your valuable comments. Long time no news from you about the tidal wave project you are working on...Government of Gujarat in India will be pleased to lend you all the assistance if you desire...

Ramanathan Menon

Len Gould
12.17.10
"A solar power plant the size of Lake Nasser has the capacity of supplying the electricity needs of the entire region."

I don't see why anyone needs to hear more than that, knowing that Sargent and Lundys LLC of Chicago has evaluated NREL data on solar thermal in detail and concluded that "If 8 GW of solar thermal could be built by 2020, the cost of generated electricity would be reduced to $0.035 to $0.062 / kwh (2002 $US)"

The only real downside risk is a major breakthrough in solar PV, but that's looking a LOT less likely now than ten years ago, given all the effort put into it in the time period with little result.

Darshan Goswami
12.17.10
Dear Mr. Menon,

Thank you for publishing this article on potential of Solar Energy in the Middle East Countries. You have done a remarkable job in researching and putting together the future potential of Solar Energy. The cost of Solar has come down dramatically. Very soon the cost of Solar Energy will become cheaper as compared to the fossil fuels due to the volume production and the new breakthrough in technologies. Beside Middle East most Asian countries have same potential to use God's natural resources to meet their future energy needs. In addition, developing Solar Energy would create millions of jobs, sustain positive economic growth, help lift their massive population out of poverty and combat climate change.

We must all work together to bring awareness and educate the public and the Government officials to develop policies and allocate resources to tap the Renewable Energy Resources such as Solar, Wind, Hydro, Biomass, Biogas, Geothermal, and Hydrogen Economy.

Thanks.

Darshan L. Goswami,

Ramanathan Menon
12.20.10
Dear Len:

Silicon wires, which use only 1% of the material needed to make conventional solar cells, could soon be used to make solar cells, thanks to a new method devised by a team of U.S. researchers from California Institute of Technology, USA.

The researchers hope to make thin, light solar cells that could be incorporated into clothing, for instance, but the immediate benefit is cheaper and easier-to-install solar panels, reports Nature Materials. The new material uses conventional silicon configured into micron-sized wires instead of brittle wafers and encases them in a flexible polymer that can be rolled or bent. "The idea is it would be lower-cost and easier to work with by being more flexible than conventional silicon solar cells," said Michael Kelzenberg of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, who worked on the study.

Solar cells, which convert solar energy into electricity, are in high demand because of higher oil prices and concerns over climate change. Many firms, including Sharp and Germany's Q-Cells SE, are making thin-film solar cells using organic materials such as polymers, but they typically are less efficient at converting solar energy into electricity than conventional cells using silicon. The study is among the latest to combine the flexibility of the new organic or carbon-containing films with the high efficiency of silicon, which is heavy and stiff.

Len Gould
12.20.10
Mr Menon: Perhaps, but we've been promised that next revolutionary breakthrough in PV for a long time now, with no delivery. Either too expensive or to inefficient. It's almost a perfect scenario for the coal mining companies. Hold off the known "Good enough" (17% efficient solar thermal with thermal storage) for the "Better" (some new idea for PV which never seems to actually happen). Spheral Solar, Sliver Solar, etc. etc. etc., all gone now.

Ramanathan Menon
12.21.10
Here is a latest and encouraging news item from ‘New Scientist’:

A new breed of electronic solar cells that harvests power from heat that could double the output of conventional panels. Solar cells that work at night. It sounds like an oxymoron, but a new breed of nanoscale light-sensitive antennas could soon make this possible, heralding a novel form of renewable energy that avoids many of the problems that beset solar cells.

The key to these new devices is their ability to harvest infrared (IR) radiation, says Steven Novack, one of the pioneers of the technology at the US Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls. Nearly half of the available energy in the solar spectrum resides in the infrared band, and IR is re-emitted by the Earth's surface after the sun has gone down, meaning that the antennas can even capture some energy during the night.

Lab tests have already shown that, under ideal conditions, the antennas can collect 84% of incoming photons. Novack's team calculates that a complete system would have an overall efficiency of 46%; the most efficient silicon solar cells are stalled at about 25%.

What's more, while those ideal conditions are relatively narrowly constrained for silicon solar cells - if the sun is in the wrong position, light reflects off a silicon solar cell instead of being absorbed - the antennas absorb radiation at a variety of angles. Solar arrays of billions of the tiny antennas have an efficiency as high as 84%.

Unlike photovoltaic cells, which use photons to liberate electrons, the new antennas resonate when hit by light waves, and that generates an alternating current that can be harnessed. To build an array that could capture both visible and infrared radiation, researchers envision multiple layers of antennas, with each layer tuned to a different optical frequency.

So far, two main challenges have stood in the way of fomenting a revolution in solar power.

First, the length of the antennas must be close to the size of the wavelength being captured, which in the case of the solar spectrum can be very small - from millimetres down to a few hundred nanometres.

Second, the currents produced will be alternating at frequencies too high to be of use unless they are first converted into a steady direct current. The problem here is that silicon diodes, which are crucial to the conversion, typically don't operate at the high frequencies required, says Aimin Song, a nanoelectronic engineer at the University of Manchester, UK.

Both of these barriers are now being broken down. Earlier this year, Novack and colleagues perfected a technique for creating arrays of billions of antennas. Although these antennas were only just small enough to harvest energy at the far end of the infrared spectrum, Novack says it should be possible to modify the process and build smaller antennas to work with mid and near-infrared.

Meanwhile Song, and Garret Moddel's team at the University of Colorado in Boulder, have independently taken a significant step in tackling the current-conversion problem by creating novel diodes capable of handling high optical frequencies. Both groups expect to combine the diodes and antennas into working prototypes within months.

Semiconductor diodes act like valves, converting alternating current into direct current. To work with the novel antennas, they have to operate at the AC frequencies being received and match the conductive properties of the antenna.

Semiconductors are ill-suited for this, as they tend to become less conductive when shrunk to the size of the antennas. Several groups have tackled this problem, creating diodes based on different concepts. One is that at tiny scales, the physical geometry of the device influences current flow: by creating asymmetry in the geometry, electrons can be funnelled to flow one way only.

Len Gould
12.21.10
Well..... It sounds an awful lot like the "Optical Rectenna", which I (and most others) have known about for years. Demonstrations using gold etched antennae for the far infrared are over a decade old. Agreed that sucessful creation of dense antenna arrays using a new technique which builds arrays capable of collecting in the far infrared (the longest useful wavelength) is a good step, but as the article points out, there's still the problem of matching arrays simultaneously to a broad spectrum of energies, and then the diodes, which appear to still be in the speculative stage only, still.

Go with what works now. This technology will be ready to replace it when these installs have fully amortized their capital and are ready for replacement.

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.21.10
In the Middle East where it is warm (lots of IR) and sunny (lots of visible light) - great idea. Makes one wonder why the United Arab Emirates has just signed a contract with South Korea to build 4 nuclear power plants though doesn't it. Do they know something we don't. Maybe they don't have room for vast areas of solar panels. Any one got any idea why they would do that when solar power is so plentiful, cheap and readily available?

In Canada forget it. Solar installations here are (as we speak) covered with snow and ice. Not sure how much solar radiation gets through it but I think not much.

Breakthroughs in solar technology always seem about 10 years away - rather like fusion on the nuclear side of things - that is always 50 years away isn't it.

No problem with building such plants where the climate allows but not a sensible idea in northern climes.

If we adopt Len's concept of build what works (totally agree) - suggest like the Chinese - we build more nuclear plants. We know those work very well. Sixty three new plants now under construction worldwide (see World Nuclear Association website for details) and many more to come.

Malcolm

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.21.10
Ramanathan,

What is likely driving countries in the Middle East is the knowledge that sooner or later their oil wells will run dry. I suspect that is much closer than any of us think. Since there is nothing much else in the way of natural resources in these countries it makes perfect sense to develop other energy industries using revenues from the oil business.

Malcolm

bill payne
12.21.10
Let's try to get answers from EE Frank Currie.

http://home.comcast.net/~bpayne37/eprishumard/howard/howard.htm#currie

'Makes one wonder why the United Arab Emirates has just signed a contract with South Korea to build 4 nuclear power plants though doesn't it.'

Uranium supply Internet posts warn

According to the Times, China's "civilian nuclear power industry" (and rest assured there's a Chinese military nuclear power industry as well) has 11 operating reactors, with as many as 10 new reactors per year planned for the next 15 years. That's 150 new reactors just in China.

So where will the world nuclear industry obtain the uranium fuel for all these new reactors? That's a darn good question. Just in the US, annual uranium use for the nuclear power industry is about 55 million pounds. The US produces less than 4 million pounds of this fuel - about 7% - and imports the rest.

and

Uranium supply shortage is real, and "Peak Uranium" is harder to deny than "Peak Oil".This year's world uranium mine output could or might attain 55000 tons, but demand will be about 68000 tons. It is difficult to imagine what would happen to world oil, coal or gas prices if their world supply was 20% lower than their world demand.

according to Byron King and Andrew McKillop.

Google references

Don Hirschberg
12.21.10
Sure, we know how to make electricity from sunshine. But only 1/3rd of the time (annually) and we don’t know how to store it. And making electricity from thermal solar is difficult without using lots of water. These are the big problems.

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.22.10
Agree Don. I am very intrigued by the possibility of infra red generation since that overcomes one of the major disadvantages which is production of solar electricity at night but the amount of land required to make any meaningful dent in our supply requirements is very large because the power density is so diffuse. I cannot conceive of vast areas of land being covered in these panels without major public discontent. Perhaps in the deserts of the middle east but in highly populated areas it's a non-starter.

peter snell
12.22.10
bill payne: "Uranium supply shortage is real..."

Not actually, bill. There's a LOT of U in the world. Just the EASY reserves have been tapped to date.

For at least a decade more, no nuclear plant will be a minute late starting for lack of available U. [Stockpiles are enough to operate them all for several years.] Production will ramp up as soon as market prices signal that demand is really up to the levels required to bring medium-cost reserves into reproduction. When further demand requires it, there's maybe a thousand years worth of U dissolved in the world's oceans ... the price necessary to produce that material will be a bit higher.

However, medium and higher cost reserves will NOT price nuclear power into the range necessary for the pie-in-the-sky next-gen PV to be competitive on a 24-hr basis. I agree that fusion will probably be generating before the ideal PV/storage is base-load competitive.

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.22.10
Right on Peter. Uranium is plentiful in the earths crust. Bill go to the website of the World Nuclear Association for well researched facts. The "world is running out of everything" theory was promoted by the Club of Rome and subsequently discounted as a fallacy since it depends on you knowing how much of a material exists in the earth's crust - which of course neither you nor I know. Neither does Mr. King nor Mr. Mc.Killop.

What you will see from the WNA site is that what is available depends on the price. That is the trump card of nuclear. The price of nuclear electricity is not affected by the price of Uranium to any meaningful degree. Even if the price quadrupled it would have hardly any effect on the price of nuclear electricity.

But a quadrupling of price would make uneconomic reserves viable and therefore the amount available at the higher price increases.

Peter talks about U in seawater. U is present at about 0.003 ppm in seawater. A rough calculation shows that even at that low concentration there is about 41,400 years worth at 100,000 te/yr consumption rate. Japanese scientists already have developed the process for getting it out but it is expensive and not economic at todays spot prices. But increase the price of Uranium 5 or tenfold and it is economic.

Also people that use the argument that we are running out of uranium fail to understand even the basic physics of the nuclear fuel cycle. Firstly most reactors only consume roughly 2% of the U235 fissile isotope. That means 98% is not used when it is discharged from the reactor. Only a few countries recycle and reuse this fuel but of course the inventory of "waste" fuel is not counted in the fuel availability calculations and there is of course enough fissile material in the waste to keep every reactor operating for at leat the next hundred years. Just by recycling what we have already mined. Secondly Uranium is NOT the only fuel cycle available to nuclear reactor designers. Thorium can be used in low neutron absorbing reactors like CANDU and the availability of Thorium is far larger than U. Thirdly fast breeder reactors can produce new fuel from plentiful U238 by using the extra neutron given off in the fission of plutonium. This technology was proven at Dounreay in the UK and the Chinese are building such a reactor as we speak. This technology can extend the available Uranium supplies by hundreds of years.

Now I do expect there to be a temporary shortfall in Uranium supplies around 2013 when the missile warhead to nuclear reactor fuel program winds down. That will create a shortfall between what is available from mines and what is consumed so Uranium companies will be a great investment over the next few years. But it will be temporary since higher prices will spur greater exploration and larger supplies of U will result. That is a fact.

So rest assured that the world is NOT running out of Uranium and any assertion to the contrary is based on biassed political opinion and not fact.

Malcolm

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.22.10
Bill, Further to your post about Uranium supply. It is an ironic fact that most of the requirements of the US plants are coming from burning Russian warhead material diluted down from 95% pure U235 to the 3-5% range. So your fuel supply is presently coming from Russia. When that deal ends in 2013 the US will be buying Uranium (actually U3O8 and UF6) on the spot market. The main suppliers are Canada (Cameco and others) and Australia (BHP Biliton) which I think is a much more stable supply arrangement than buying oil from the troubled Middle East wouldn't you say.

Also the US is developing new supplies of Uranium of its own using in situ leaching methods. Cameco has built a plant in Wyoming to do that and goes into production soon.

So there is no shortage of Uranium and as Peter rightly states no reactor will be a single day late due to fuel supply. Of course the Chinese being the forward thinkers that they are are stockpiling Uranium at todays low prices so they will not run short.

Malcolm

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.22.10
Bill, One last point. Go to the Cameco website. The company is about to start up a new mine called Cigar Lake which has Uranium reserves at the 20-25% U range. A very rich deposit by world standards. That company plants to double Uranium production in the next few years under its "Double U" program and is already one of the worlds largest suppliers. Large supplies are also coming on stream from Kazakhstan and mines in Australia (Kintyre in Western Australia) where development was stopped due to low U prices.

So I expect spot prices to go way up in the short term but we will not run out of Uranium and"Peak Uranium" is complete bunk.

Malcolm

Len Gould
12.23.10
Malcolm says "I cannot conceive of vast areas of land being covered in these panels without major public discontent." Really? Vast areas the size of a typical Hydro-Electric development, perhaps? Such as Lake Nasser, mentioned in the article.

I agree that nuclear energy is part of the transition beyond coal and natural gas, but so are a LOT of other systems not "considered economic" by the narrowest minded, blind-to-future investor classes.

Malcolm Rawlingson
12.23.10
Nowhere Len did I make any statement that I agree with the concept of flooding vast areas of land for hydro electric power. It is about as stupid as covering vast areas of land with solar panels. At least you agree that nuclear is part of the solution so we are making some headway.

Well Len while I have not mentioned it in these pages before I have made millions from strategic investments in energy. So please PLEASE dont talk to me being blind to future investments. I know what it takes to m ake money in energy far better than you ever will. Had you invested in Cameco as I did when it was just $14 per share you would have almost tripled your money. It is now trading at $40 per share. You would be wise to head my advice and put your money into nuclear companies. To paraphrase what you said earlier it is something we know works.

Only a fool would invest their money in solar. It is not economic now and will never be economic because the power source is too diverse. The ONLY reason that hydroelectric power plants are economic is because mother nature does the lifting for us.

Solar power is being bought here at 80c/kwh which is 20 times the price of nuclear including all the decommissioning a waste fuel storage costs.

But you invest your money in blind alleys and I will continue to invest in those things that are economic and do make money.

Malcolm

Len Gould
12.24.10
Say what you will, Malcolm, but eventually the ONLY energy source for all life on earth will be fusion energy, either in some system like ITER or direct radiation from the sun. As I complained of above, people who judge success by the amount of returns they make on their investments simply have too short an attention span to entrust society's future to entirely.

Ferdinand E. Banks
12.25.10
What is the big deal here? There is at least as much thorium around the place as uranium. and thorium is also fissionable. At the same time let's remember that a certain government is not interested in conventional fission reactors, because they believe that it is crazy to invest in those reactors when breeders multiplies up the fuel in a reactor by a factor of...of maybe 40.

Ferdinand E. Banks
12.25.10
By the way, it makes all the economic sense in the world for countries in the Gulf to make big investments in renewables. They want to save as much oil as possible to use in petrochemical facilities, precisely as the last Shah of Iran told them. His opinion was that crude was to valuable to "burn up in the air."

Let me also say that I am no friend of breeders as long as governments are run by fools.

Len Gould
12.28.10
It also seems that the investors who presently profit from fission energy, and no doubt in future plan to profit from fusion, should consider as at least equal shareholders if not senior owners, the investors who develop such systems in the R&D phase. How much of the billions originally invested to develop fission energy, now gone and going into ITER or laser fusion came from anyone but taxpayers? Zero.

Michael Keller
1.5.11
Small technical point. In a reactor, thorium is actually converted into Uranium 233 which, like Uranium 235 and Plutonium 239, is fissionable. Graphite moderated reactors, like the high temperature helium reactor, can use thorium more readily than their pressurized water reactor brethren.

Uranium 238 is converted into Plutonium 239 in conventional reactors, with about 95% of the new fuel actually Uranium 238 and about 5% Uranium 235. Spent nuclear fuel contains large amounts of plutonium which can be chemically removed.

A breeder reactor can create more fuel than it uses, but the reactors are technically challenging (and expensive).

In any case, we have ample supplies of fissionable materials for the distant future, with cost the real driving force as to which fissile materials are used. For the foreseeable future, using Uranium 235 is less expensive than removing Plutonium from spent nuclear fuel and making new fuel assemblies. Breeders are even more expensive.

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