ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its Integrated Energy Outlook for the third quarter of 2011. The study highlights the impacts of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed environmental regulations and the growth of shale natural gas production.
This quarter’s Energy Outlook analyzes the EPA’s Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), which was revised on October 6. The Energy Outlook also analyzes EPA’s proposed Air Toxics Rule, coal combustion residuals, and cooling water intake structure standards. Although the combined impact of the rules remains uncertain, the regulations could lead to a total of approximately 50 GW of coal plant retirements, including those retirements announced to date.
Contrary to some projections that indicate environmental regulations will severely impact U.S. coal production, ICF projects that U.S. coal production and prices will remain stable. In particular, demand for low sulfur Powder River Basin coal and low-cost, high-sulfur Illinois Basin coal is expected to be strong.
The Outlook also finds that shale gas production will continue to grow at a rapid pace. However, natural gas prices are expected to remain low in the near term until emissions regulations spur additional gas demand growth in the power sector. Despite the continued growth in natural gas use, the study finds that escalating renewable portfolio standards in California and the eastern U.S. will lead to continued growth in renewable generation capacity and firming renewable energy credit (REC) market prices.
ICF’s Integrated Energy Outlook addresses a number of significant issues, including:
Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools, ICF has a fully integrated assessment of wholesale power, transmission, fuel, and emissions markets in order to offer the most complete picture of the energy industry. By incorporating global expertise from all areas of the industry, the Outlook is able to provide big picture insights about these volatile energy markets, as well as market-specific projections and forecasts. For example, the Outlook shows a significant shift, to renewables and natural gas, which will dramatically affect the wholesale power competitive landscape.
The Outlook offers insight into the key areas of emissions, gas, coal, renewable energy, and power:
Additional projections include:
For more information regarding the third quarter release of ICF’s Integrated Energy Outlook, please register for our webinar, scheduled for Tuesday, October 11: http://www.icfi.com/energywebinar
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About ICF International
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, and transportation; health, education, and social programs; and homeland security and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program lifecycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 3,700 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF's website is http://www.icfi.com.
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